361 FXUS61 KCLE 040743 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 343 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will become centered over the area through this afternoon. Low pressure moving northeast out of the Mississippi Valley will move a warm front north late Friday evening into the overnight hours. Another disturbance impacts the area on Saturday into Sunday as a cold front pushes east. Another low pressure approaches the area from the northwest on Monday before high pressure returns Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... An active pattern persists through the near term period as multiple disturbances look to track along the leading edge of a deepening upper level trough over the western US. The positioning of this trough is allowing for a consistent stream of moisture from the Gulf north through the Ohio River Valley with PWAT values of 1-1.5 inches spanning that entire area. In addition, a strong upper level jet and areas of enhanced vorticity with the aforementioned shortwave disturbances will allow for upper level support for shower development through the period. The timing of associated surface features and boundaries will be key to when the greatest potential for heavy rain and possible thunderstorms will be. Currently, high pressure is building over the area behind a departing cold front to the southeast. Weak forcing on the front edge of the high has allowed for scattered light rain showers to occur over the far southern counties this morning. These showers will continue to push southeast of the area over the coming hours, allowing for the aforementioned high to become centered over the area for much of today. This will allow for dry conditions, although lingering moisture should keep cloudy conditions around. This evening, a warm front associated with a surface low moving northeast along the Mississippi River Valley into the Ohio River Valley will result in showers gradually spreading north across the area once again. Coinciding with the movement of this front, a strong LLJ near 45-50 knots will surge north and provide additional support for shower and thunderstorm development. Overall instability seems to be limited, especially given the diurnally unfavorable timing, however cannot rule out some thunder occurring across the southern counties tonight into early Saturday. As the parent low tracks through the central Great Lakes on Saturday, a cold front will drape southwest somewhere across the area, although the exact location diverges a bit amongst models. Ahead of this boundary, increasing temperatures, continued moisture advection, weak instability and strong shear will result in a risk for the development of scattered strong to severe storms. The primary threat with any storm development will be strong winds and large hail. SPC has highlighted an area extending from near Youngstown OH southwest to Marion OH in a Day 2 Marginal Risk for severe weather. The more notable concern with this entire system late Friday through Saturday is the potential for flooding across the area, especially in locations that see multiple rounds of heavy precipitation. As the aforementioned warm front lifts north Friday night into Saturday, deepening warm cloud layers and increasing PWAT values will result in heavy rainfall across the area with an additional 1-1.25" expected across the entire area. There are expected to be locally higher amounts across southern counties with areas of total QPF over 1.5" possible. To highlight these higher PWAT values and potential impacts, WPC has highlighted the southern counties in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. In addition, areas along and west of I-77 remain under a Flood Watch into Sunday to account for the potential river flooding in addition to localized flash and urban flooding. Stay tuned to the forecast for additional updates. High temperatures today will be a bit cooler, only climbing into the mid-50s for much of the area, with slightly cooler temperatures possible along the lakeshore. Temperatures tonight will have little change in areas where the warm front lifts north, leaving the northwestern portion of the CWA the only locations with a notable cool down into the low to mid 40s. Highs on Saturday will climb into he mid to upper 60s along and east of I-71 with temperatures to the west expected to remain in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will finally push the baroclinic zone that has affected the CWA for the past several days to the south and east, thanks to the main energy from the upper level low finally ejecting out of the four corners region of the southwest. Some lingering rain Saturday night prior to exit and will see the best forcing for this round of rainfall from 00-06Z Sunday in the low/mid level frontogenesis. Should see around an inch of rain for the southern zones from 00Z Sunday onward, with the bulk of the rain out of the area by 12Z, representing the last of the significant precipitation from this pattern. Dry weather quickly moves in for Sunday, but a chilly day is expected as 850mb temperatures drop below 0C with surface and low level cold air advection occurring. A late secondary band of f-gen sets up on the southeastern edge of the CWA after 00Z Monday producing rain/snow showers due to temperatures in the 30s, and exiting quickly. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Sharp upper trough swings through the Great Lakes with a cold front Monday, reinforcing the colder air from the Sunday high pressure system. More cold air advection as 850mb temperatures plummet into the -10C to -14C range. Surface temperatures in the 45-50F range Monday before the cold air advection occurs, but falling into the low to mid 20s Monday night. Precipitation with the cold front and in the post frontal environment primarily as rain/snow showers changing to all snow showers Monday night through Tuesday. As of this issuance, despite the prevailing surface/low level northwest flow, but a steady stream of moisture does not look as of yet that it will materialize. So in terms of snowfall and snow amounts, a couple inches possible in NW PA, and an inch or less westward in NE OH. Despite the cold air and only 30s for highs Tuesday, sun angle this time of year will not allow much residence time of snow on the ground. High pressure moves in late Tuesday night and Wednesday, quickly exiting to the east and allowing for quick temperature modification mid week. Another upper trough/surface low pressure system expected Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... Light rain showers continue to skirt the southern portion of the area, periodically impacting KCAK and KMFD with reduced visibilities to MVFR distances. Ceilings are consistently remaining between 4-9kft across the area and are not expected to diminish much, even in showers. These aforementioned showers will continue to diminish and drift southeast of the area through the morning hours, no longer impacting any terminals by 10Z. This will allow for all terminals to remain dry for much of the day with VFR conditions. The next round of showers will approach from the south beginning near 21Z, spreading north across the entire area through the remainder of this TAF period. As these showers become more steady into the late evening hours, expect widespread visibilities to be reduced to 4SM or less and ceilings to gradually diminish to MVFR heights and eventually to IFR at the very end of this period. There remains a bit of uncertainty with thunder potential at terminals, but opted to include VCTS at terminals where confidence is highest, but will have to monitor the environment throughout the day given the diurnally unfavorable timing. Winds today will remain from the east-northeast at 5-10 knots ahead of an approaching warm front and associated showers from the south. Near the end of this period, winds will gradually begin to shift to the east-southeast at 5-12. Isolated gusts up to 20 knots are possible along and east of I71, but should not be widespread or frequent. Outlook...Non-VFR conditions are likely in showers and thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday with non-VFR ceilings continuing into Sunday. Additional non-VFR conditions possible in rain and snow showers Monday into Tuesday. && .MARINE... Northeast wind 15kts brings western basin wave heights up to 2-4ft, slightly less further east today. Friday night into Saturday, expect highly variable wind directions as low pressure/warm front/cold front affects Lake Erie as it moves through the region with around 15kt winds and wave heights 1-3ft in general. Saturday night into Sunday, winds out of the north 15-20kts and approaching SCA for the central basin with 3-4ft waves, easing Sunday night. Another cold front Monday brings winds back out of the northwest 15-25kts through Tuesday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ003-006>011-017>021- 027>032-036>038-047. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...04 NEAR TERM...04 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...04 MARINE...26