503 
FXUS64 KTSA 241722
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1222 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 229 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

  - Temperatures remain above normal with continued elevated to
    near critical fire weather conditions into the upcoming week
    before low to medium rain chances return mid week. 

  - Active weather pattern late in the week and into next weekend
    brings in moisture and widespread showers and storms, putting
    a damper on fire weather concerns.

  - Severe weather potential increases during the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today)
Issued at 1028 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

Surface high pressure will slowly shift southeast of the local 
region through the rest of today, allowing a return of 
southwesterly winds this afternoon. Wind speeds are expected to
increase early this afternoon, especially along and north of I-44
as subtle Lee troughing develops over the High Plains. A narrow
850mb speed max will also move along the OK/KS border through the
afternoon and efficient afternoon mixing conditions will bring
some of those faster gusts to the surface by mid to late afternoon
across far northeast Oklahoma. Wind speeds of 15-20 mph with 
gusts approaching 30 mph are forecast north of I-44. That coupled 
with the dry air in place will lead to more elevated to near-
critical fire weather conditions for across most of eastern 
Oklahoma. A Fire danger Statement remains in effect for areas 
north of I-40 in eastern Oklahoma and parts of northwest Arkansas.
Will keep monitoring trends for a possible short duration Red 
Flag Warning for locations along the OK/KS border where winds will
be strongest. Continue to use caution to avoid fire starts this 
afternoon. Otherwise, a nice Spring day is in store with highs 
warming into the mid to upper 70s and only some passing high 
clouds through the rest of today.

Going forecast looks in good shape through the afternoon, with
just minor updates made to hourly grids owing to recent
observations.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

The expectations for the remainder of the work week and into the
next weekend are highlighted by the best chances for rainfall that
the area has seen in awhile, which brings good news regarding the
persistent fire weather issues of late.

A wind shift will move through the region tonight and into
Tuesday, with winds being light enough during the day Tuesday to
preclude major fire weather concerns despite continued low
afternoon relative humidities. To our south, a warm front will 
lift northward across Texas through the day, approaching the Red
River by Tuesday night. Low level moisture will increase across
areas south of I-40 in response, with increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms into Wednesday as a mid level
disturbance interacts with the front. The northern extent of the
NBM POPs during this time frame looked much more reasonable than
24-hours ago, when the relevant feature placement is concerned,
and as such, no changes have been made to them with this forecast. 

Low shower and thunderstorm chances will shift to northern
portions of the region Wednesday night and into early Thursday as
a mid level disturbance moves eastward along the Kansas border. 

With southwesterly flow aloft setting up for the end of the week,
moisture return should be more substantial, with the result being
more widespread potential for rainfall /likely beginning in the
late Thursday into Friday time frame/ and eventually, increased 
severe weather potential /Saturday into early Sunday/. A cold
front on Sunday looks to bring seasonably cooler conditions back
to the region, as well as a return to drier weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the period with some passing high
clouds. Occasionally gusty southwesterly winds across NE OK this 
afternoon will go light and variable overnight tonight. A weak 
boundary will switch winds to the north northwest tomorrow 
morning, but speeds remain generally less than 10 knots overnight 
through tomorrow morning. 

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   50  80  50  77 /   0   0  10  10 
FSM   50  85  52  80 /   0   0  10  10 
MLC   50  84  53  77 /   0  10  30  30 
BVO   46  80  44  74 /   0   0  10   0 
FYV   48  78  47  76 /   0   0  10   0 
BYV   50  75  48  71 /   0   0   0   0 
MKO   49  79  51  76 /   0   0  10  10 
MIO   48  75  48  71 /   0   0   0   0 
F10   50  80  53  76 /   0   0  20  20 
HHW   50  84  56  71 /   0  10  40  40 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...04