503 FXUS64 KTSA 241722 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1222 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 229 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 - Temperatures remain above normal with continued elevated to near critical fire weather conditions into the upcoming week before low to medium rain chances return mid week. - Active weather pattern late in the week and into next weekend brings in moisture and widespread showers and storms, putting a damper on fire weather concerns. - Severe weather potential increases during the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today) Issued at 1028 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Surface high pressure will slowly shift southeast of the local region through the rest of today, allowing a return of southwesterly winds this afternoon. Wind speeds are expected to increase early this afternoon, especially along and north of I-44 as subtle Lee troughing develops over the High Plains. A narrow 850mb speed max will also move along the OK/KS border through the afternoon and efficient afternoon mixing conditions will bring some of those faster gusts to the surface by mid to late afternoon across far northeast Oklahoma. Wind speeds of 15-20 mph with gusts approaching 30 mph are forecast north of I-44. That coupled with the dry air in place will lead to more elevated to near- critical fire weather conditions for across most of eastern Oklahoma. A Fire danger Statement remains in effect for areas north of I-40 in eastern Oklahoma and parts of northwest Arkansas. Will keep monitoring trends for a possible short duration Red Flag Warning for locations along the OK/KS border where winds will be strongest. Continue to use caution to avoid fire starts this afternoon. Otherwise, a nice Spring day is in store with highs warming into the mid to upper 70s and only some passing high clouds through the rest of today. Going forecast looks in good shape through the afternoon, with just minor updates made to hourly grids owing to recent observations. Bowlan && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 229 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 The expectations for the remainder of the work week and into the next weekend are highlighted by the best chances for rainfall that the area has seen in awhile, which brings good news regarding the persistent fire weather issues of late. A wind shift will move through the region tonight and into Tuesday, with winds being light enough during the day Tuesday to preclude major fire weather concerns despite continued low afternoon relative humidities. To our south, a warm front will lift northward across Texas through the day, approaching the Red River by Tuesday night. Low level moisture will increase across areas south of I-40 in response, with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms into Wednesday as a mid level disturbance interacts with the front. The northern extent of the NBM POPs during this time frame looked much more reasonable than 24-hours ago, when the relevant feature placement is concerned, and as such, no changes have been made to them with this forecast. Low shower and thunderstorm chances will shift to northern portions of the region Wednesday night and into early Thursday as a mid level disturbance moves eastward along the Kansas border. With southwesterly flow aloft setting up for the end of the week, moisture return should be more substantial, with the result being more widespread potential for rainfall /likely beginning in the late Thursday into Friday time frame/ and eventually, increased severe weather potential /Saturday into early Sunday/. A cold front on Sunday looks to bring seasonably cooler conditions back to the region, as well as a return to drier weather. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 VFR conditions prevail through the period with some passing high clouds. Occasionally gusty southwesterly winds across NE OK this afternoon will go light and variable overnight tonight. A weak boundary will switch winds to the north northwest tomorrow morning, but speeds remain generally less than 10 knots overnight through tomorrow morning. Bowlan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 50 80 50 77 / 0 0 10 10 FSM 50 85 52 80 / 0 0 10 10 MLC 50 84 53 77 / 0 10 30 30 BVO 46 80 44 74 / 0 0 10 0 FYV 48 78 47 76 / 0 0 10 0 BYV 50 75 48 71 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 49 79 51 76 / 0 0 10 10 MIO 48 75 48 71 / 0 0 0 0 F10 50 80 53 76 / 0 0 20 20 HHW 50 84 56 71 / 0 10 40 40 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...04