656 
FXUS63 KLMK 092326
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
726 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Strong to severe storms through the early overnight hours, 
    several of which could be capable of producing tornadoes. 
    Locally heavy rainfall and damaging straight line wind gusts 
    also possible with storms. 

*   Breezy conditions expected on Wednesday, with sustained winds of 
    10-20 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph.

*   Mostly dry weather and warming temperatures expected for late 
    week into next weekend. Worsening drought conditions are 
    possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 725 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Strong to severe storms continue across the region this evening. 
Recent observations denote the warm frontal boundary near or just 
north of the Ohio River within the CWA. Several storms have taken on 
supercellular characteristics and exhibited low-level rotation, with 
reports of rotating wall clouds and funnel clouds coming in on many 
of these. The most potent storms up to this point have been across 
western KY and southwestern IN where tornadoes have been 
observed/reported and the overall low-level shear has been 
strongest. 

The best low level shear environment is quickly advancing eastward 
this evening, and storms that can capitalize on this environment will 
be capable of producing tornadoes. Appears we will have one final 
'wave' of convection that will push through, starting around 2330-
00z in our western CWA. Guidance has been a bit aggressive with 
convection developing along this wave across southwestern KY and 
pushing NNE into our region, though recent radar obs show this 
activity struggling. This will be closely monitored over the next 
several hours. Most activity should weaken and/or push northeast of 
the CWA by or shortly after midnight EDT.


Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Tornado Watch 516 has been issued and covers nearly the entire CWA 
through the first half of the overnight hours. Already dealing with 
one longer lived supercell near the KY/TN border but additional 
supercells are anticipated to develop and have the potential to 
produce tornadoes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Active weather is expected to unfold here shortly this afternoon and 
continue into the early overnight hours. Beryl was centered over 
extreme northeastern Arkansas around 18z and has steadily been 
moving to the northeast. A surface warm front has steadily been 
lifting northward ahead of Beryl and is draped across portions of 
central Kentucky. 

Scattered showers and storms have already developed across the 
region. There is quite a bit of effective bulk shear (40-50kts) and 
we have observed several supercellular structures/characteristics in 
the convection due to this shear. Warmer mid-level temps have helped 
suppress convection from reaching their 'highest' potential, though 
increasing low-level moisture is helping to erode that cap. So 
expect to see an upward trend in strong/severe activity as we get 
later into the afternoon. Additionally, low level shear and helicity 
will steadily increase as Beryl approaches, increasing our tornado 
threat as we go into the late afternoon and evening hours. Storms 
that form near the warm front will also benefit from enhanced low 
level shear and helicity from backed surface winds, increasing the 
tornado potential.

The final wave/round of showers and storms should push northeast out 
of our region around or shortly after midnight. Stratus will 
eventually build in behind the precipitation and result in a cloudy 
start to the day tomorrow. Clouds should gradually break up and 
clear through the day but they will certainly have an impact on 
temperatures, keeping them a bit below climo normals. Gradient winds 
will also be gusty at times, likely ranging from 20mph to 30mph

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Wednesday Night - Thursday night...

Winds really slacken off Wednesday night as the pressure gradient 
relaxes and weak high pressure builds over the region. With 
temperatures falling into the low/mid 60s early Thursday, areas of 
fog will be possible (especially in areas that see heavier rainfall 
today into tonight). 

An upper level trough gradually drops southeast from the Midwest 
through Thursday night and will bring briefly deeper moisture. There 
is only a slight chance for a shower in southern IN and western 
portions of KY Thursday afternoon/evening. Most will stay dry with 
highs in the mid/upper 80s. 

Friday through Monday...

A much more typical summertime pattern will return for the end of 
this week into the weekend. A broad area of positive height 
anomalies over the Atlantic will link up with ridging over the 
western CONUS, leading to height/thickness increases across the Ohio 
and Tennessee valleys into the weekend. This will lead to 
progressively warming temperatures, with highs back into the 90s for 
the weekend. 

Hot and humid summertime conditions will linger into next week. Some 
weak moisture return looks possible ahead of a trough moving 
southeast through the Great Lakes and Midwest. Some isolated 
shower/storm chances will be possible. However, the medium range 
continues to look hot and relatively dry for the most part.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 725 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms as part of the remnants of Beryl 
are still anticipated to move across the region this evening. The 
latest high resolution guidance has a line of thunderstorms moving 
across the area starting around 00z and moving to the east outside 
of the coverage area by 7z. 

After the thunderstorm line leaves the region later tonight, 
IFR/MVFR cigs will filter in from the west toward dawn tomorrow and 
persist through a good part of the day. Winds will also pick up out 
of the west or WSW as Beryl departs to the northeast. Wind gusts 
between 15 and 25 kts will decrease toward 00z Thursday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DM
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...MK