656 FXUS63 KLMK 092326 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 726 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Strong to severe storms through the early overnight hours, several of which could be capable of producing tornadoes. Locally heavy rainfall and damaging straight line wind gusts also possible with storms. * Breezy conditions expected on Wednesday, with sustained winds of 10-20 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph. * Mostly dry weather and warming temperatures expected for late week into next weekend. Worsening drought conditions are possible. && .UPDATE... Issued at 725 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Strong to severe storms continue across the region this evening. Recent observations denote the warm frontal boundary near or just north of the Ohio River within the CWA. Several storms have taken on supercellular characteristics and exhibited low-level rotation, with reports of rotating wall clouds and funnel clouds coming in on many of these. The most potent storms up to this point have been across western KY and southwestern IN where tornadoes have been observed/reported and the overall low-level shear has been strongest. The best low level shear environment is quickly advancing eastward this evening, and storms that can capitalize on this environment will be capable of producing tornadoes. Appears we will have one final 'wave' of convection that will push through, starting around 2330- 00z in our western CWA. Guidance has been a bit aggressive with convection developing along this wave across southwestern KY and pushing NNE into our region, though recent radar obs show this activity struggling. This will be closely monitored over the next several hours. Most activity should weaken and/or push northeast of the CWA by or shortly after midnight EDT. Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Tornado Watch 516 has been issued and covers nearly the entire CWA through the first half of the overnight hours. Already dealing with one longer lived supercell near the KY/TN border but additional supercells are anticipated to develop and have the potential to produce tornadoes. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 207 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Active weather is expected to unfold here shortly this afternoon and continue into the early overnight hours. Beryl was centered over extreme northeastern Arkansas around 18z and has steadily been moving to the northeast. A surface warm front has steadily been lifting northward ahead of Beryl and is draped across portions of central Kentucky. Scattered showers and storms have already developed across the region. There is quite a bit of effective bulk shear (40-50kts) and we have observed several supercellular structures/characteristics in the convection due to this shear. Warmer mid-level temps have helped suppress convection from reaching their 'highest' potential, though increasing low-level moisture is helping to erode that cap. So expect to see an upward trend in strong/severe activity as we get later into the afternoon. Additionally, low level shear and helicity will steadily increase as Beryl approaches, increasing our tornado threat as we go into the late afternoon and evening hours. Storms that form near the warm front will also benefit from enhanced low level shear and helicity from backed surface winds, increasing the tornado potential. The final wave/round of showers and storms should push northeast out of our region around or shortly after midnight. Stratus will eventually build in behind the precipitation and result in a cloudy start to the day tomorrow. Clouds should gradually break up and clear through the day but they will certainly have an impact on temperatures, keeping them a bit below climo normals. Gradient winds will also be gusty at times, likely ranging from 20mph to 30mph && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Wednesday Night - Thursday night... Winds really slacken off Wednesday night as the pressure gradient relaxes and weak high pressure builds over the region. With temperatures falling into the low/mid 60s early Thursday, areas of fog will be possible (especially in areas that see heavier rainfall today into tonight). An upper level trough gradually drops southeast from the Midwest through Thursday night and will bring briefly deeper moisture. There is only a slight chance for a shower in southern IN and western portions of KY Thursday afternoon/evening. Most will stay dry with highs in the mid/upper 80s. Friday through Monday... A much more typical summertime pattern will return for the end of this week into the weekend. A broad area of positive height anomalies over the Atlantic will link up with ridging over the western CONUS, leading to height/thickness increases across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys into the weekend. This will lead to progressively warming temperatures, with highs back into the 90s for the weekend. Hot and humid summertime conditions will linger into next week. Some weak moisture return looks possible ahead of a trough moving southeast through the Great Lakes and Midwest. Some isolated shower/storm chances will be possible. However, the medium range continues to look hot and relatively dry for the most part. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 725 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms as part of the remnants of Beryl are still anticipated to move across the region this evening. The latest high resolution guidance has a line of thunderstorms moving across the area starting around 00z and moving to the east outside of the coverage area by 7z. After the thunderstorm line leaves the region later tonight, IFR/MVFR cigs will filter in from the west toward dawn tomorrow and persist through a good part of the day. Winds will also pick up out of the west or WSW as Beryl departs to the northeast. Wind gusts between 15 and 25 kts will decrease toward 00z Thursday. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...DM SHORT TERM...DM LONG TERM...EBW AVIATION...MK