211 
FXUS63 KBIS 071814
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1214 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable daytime temperatures are expected today and Friday,
  with a more substantial warmup to bring above average
  temperatures this weekend and into next week.

- Dry weather is expected through the start of next week, with 
  low chances for precipitation starting midweek.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1214 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024

Flurries have begun to dissipate across the north central, as
the stratus deck begins to erode. The only change made to the
forecast was lingering the clouds in the north central around
for a bit longer, but otherwise the forecast remains on track.

.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 AM CST Thu Mar 7 2024

Some flurries have been observed across north central North
Dakota this morning, as wrap around moisture from the low in
southern Manitoba has helped bring in some stratus across the
area. As a result, we have extended the flurries for a few more
hours, until noon CST. Apart from that, the forecast remains on
track.

.UPDATE...
Issued at 619 AM CST Thu Mar 7 2024

Surface high pressure is analyzed in northeast Montana into
northwest North Dakota, with winds becoming light and mostly
clear skies in this area. The north central is close enough to
the deep low in eastern Manitoba that extensive stratus has
crept into this area, with more upstream seen via nighttime
satellite imagery. Updated sky cover in line with satellite
trends, with uncertainty in how far south it will reach given
high-res guidance isn't capturing it very well. We did add in a
mention of flurries underneath the stratus, with NDDOT cameras
showing some very light snow in a few parts of the north
central.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CST Thu Mar 7 2024

A strong, stacked low that brought accumulating snow yesterday 
is placed in southeast Manitoba early this morning, moving off 
to our northeast. At the surface, broad high pressure is 
centered in central Saskatchewan and has been pushing into 
western North Dakota. Patches of low stratus have been slow to
clear the area in the wake of yesterday's system, with nighttime
satellite imagery showing some pockets across the north and in
the south central. Isolated flurries have been persisting
through the night underneath the stratus, although as skies
continue to clear we are expecting this activity to end. Morning
lows are quite chilly up north where skies have cleared and
where there is a fresh snowpack, with temperatures as low as 10
below zero in the northwest. 

As the surface high moves in and the upper low continues to move
away from the forecast area, expecting a quiet day across
western and central North Dakota. A weak shortwave will be
swinging through Montana and into South Dakota, but at this time
expecting precipitation chances to stay south of the state line.
We again nudged high temperatures down today, especially in the
north where there was widespread snow accumulations yesterday
and NOHRSC has anywhere from 4 to 8 inches of modeled snow
depth. Highs will be in the mid teens north to the lower 30s in
the southwest. Expect some cloud cover in both the southwest,
from the previously mentioned wave to our south, and in the
north central from the exiting upper low. 

The warming trend begins on Friday as ensemble guidance is in
strong agreement on potent ridging beginning to build to our
west. Although the existing snowpack could still influence
temperatures through the weekend, especially north, the general
expectation is for highs from the 20s north to lower 40s south
on Friday to eventually warm into the lower 40s north to the
upper 50s south by Sunday. Mostly sunny skies and overall light
winds are expected during this period. The upper ridge is then
projected to move east of the region to start the work week,
with flow aloft becoming more zonal. 

Cluster analysis shows relatively similar solutions in that some
sort of trough is likely to move through the Four Corners 
Region midweek next week, although there are differences 
regarding if split flow develops and we end up in a diffuse 
pattern here compared to having an actual wave move through the
region. NBM POPs begin to increase midweek with this potential,
and there are hints of a slight cooling trend starting after the
start of the work week, although for now even the 25th 
temperature percentile is above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024

VFR conditions are present across all terminals. Some stratus at
5 kft lingers around in the north central, particularly at KMOT,
however this is expected to dissipate over the next couple
hours. Otherwise, mostly clear skies and lighter northwesterly
winds are expected through a majority of the TAF period, as
surface high pressure begins to move into the area from the
west.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Besson
DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Besson