211 FXUS63 KBIS 071814 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1214 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable daytime temperatures are expected today and Friday, with a more substantial warmup to bring above average temperatures this weekend and into next week. - Dry weather is expected through the start of next week, with low chances for precipitation starting midweek. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1214 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024 Flurries have begun to dissipate across the north central, as the stratus deck begins to erode. The only change made to the forecast was lingering the clouds in the north central around for a bit longer, but otherwise the forecast remains on track. .UPDATE... Issued at 948 AM CST Thu Mar 7 2024 Some flurries have been observed across north central North Dakota this morning, as wrap around moisture from the low in southern Manitoba has helped bring in some stratus across the area. As a result, we have extended the flurries for a few more hours, until noon CST. Apart from that, the forecast remains on track. .UPDATE... Issued at 619 AM CST Thu Mar 7 2024 Surface high pressure is analyzed in northeast Montana into northwest North Dakota, with winds becoming light and mostly clear skies in this area. The north central is close enough to the deep low in eastern Manitoba that extensive stratus has crept into this area, with more upstream seen via nighttime satellite imagery. Updated sky cover in line with satellite trends, with uncertainty in how far south it will reach given high-res guidance isn't capturing it very well. We did add in a mention of flurries underneath the stratus, with NDDOT cameras showing some very light snow in a few parts of the north central. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 323 AM CST Thu Mar 7 2024 A strong, stacked low that brought accumulating snow yesterday is placed in southeast Manitoba early this morning, moving off to our northeast. At the surface, broad high pressure is centered in central Saskatchewan and has been pushing into western North Dakota. Patches of low stratus have been slow to clear the area in the wake of yesterday's system, with nighttime satellite imagery showing some pockets across the north and in the south central. Isolated flurries have been persisting through the night underneath the stratus, although as skies continue to clear we are expecting this activity to end. Morning lows are quite chilly up north where skies have cleared and where there is a fresh snowpack, with temperatures as low as 10 below zero in the northwest. As the surface high moves in and the upper low continues to move away from the forecast area, expecting a quiet day across western and central North Dakota. A weak shortwave will be swinging through Montana and into South Dakota, but at this time expecting precipitation chances to stay south of the state line. We again nudged high temperatures down today, especially in the north where there was widespread snow accumulations yesterday and NOHRSC has anywhere from 4 to 8 inches of modeled snow depth. Highs will be in the mid teens north to the lower 30s in the southwest. Expect some cloud cover in both the southwest, from the previously mentioned wave to our south, and in the north central from the exiting upper low. The warming trend begins on Friday as ensemble guidance is in strong agreement on potent ridging beginning to build to our west. Although the existing snowpack could still influence temperatures through the weekend, especially north, the general expectation is for highs from the 20s north to lower 40s south on Friday to eventually warm into the lower 40s north to the upper 50s south by Sunday. Mostly sunny skies and overall light winds are expected during this period. The upper ridge is then projected to move east of the region to start the work week, with flow aloft becoming more zonal. Cluster analysis shows relatively similar solutions in that some sort of trough is likely to move through the Four Corners Region midweek next week, although there are differences regarding if split flow develops and we end up in a diffuse pattern here compared to having an actual wave move through the region. NBM POPs begin to increase midweek with this potential, and there are hints of a slight cooling trend starting after the start of the work week, although for now even the 25th temperature percentile is above normal. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1214 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024 VFR conditions are present across all terminals. Some stratus at 5 kft lingers around in the north central, particularly at KMOT, however this is expected to dissipate over the next couple hours. Otherwise, mostly clear skies and lighter northwesterly winds are expected through a majority of the TAF period, as surface high pressure begins to move into the area from the west. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Besson DISCUSSION...Jones AVIATION...Besson