379 
FXUS64 KMEG 300404 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1004 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024

Light winds and clear skies prevailed across the region at 
late evening. As expected, post-sunset temperatures have fallen 
quickly, especially near the TN River. Patchy valley fog has 
formed, with dewpoint depressions closing in on zero. 

Light southerly return flow is expected to develop overnight, in
advance of an upper level trough dropping southeast through the
middle MS River Valley. This return flow will have minimal impact
on temps in sheltered valleys near the TN River, but may result in
the Memphis and Jonesboro areas seeing overnight lows a few hours
prior to sunrise. 

PWB

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 234 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024

Dry and warmer weather will continue into Tuesday as highs
reaching the low to mid 60s over the southern half of the Mid-
South. A mainly dry cold front will move through the region 
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Cooler air will move in behind the 
front with temperatures dropping below normal readings for 
Wednesday. Dry weather will prevail for Thursday and Friday with 
temperatures returning to above normal. The next chance for rain 
will be this weekend with the best chance occurring on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 234 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024

Clouds have finally exited the region this afternoon with
temperatures in the 40s to around 50 degrees. High pressure is
currently centered over east Arkansas.

As the high moves northeast tonight, winds will shift to the south
bringing milder air to region. Temperatures will not be as cold
tonight with lows Tuesday morning in the 30s. On Tuesday, a cold
front will drop south into the region during the afternoon and
early evening hours. While most areas will be dry, there is a
small chance for some light rain over the northeast corner of the
Mid-South. Temperatures will be warmer ahead of the front with
highs in the low to mid 60s over the southern half of the region.
High pressure will build into the region behind the front Tuesday
night with colder and drier air moving in. Temperatures will be a
little cooler Tuesday night with lows Wednesday morning in the 
low to mid 30s. Temperatures will be below normal on Wednesday
with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Dry weather will continue for Thursday and Friday as temperatures
rebound and return to above normal readings. An upper level low
will develop over the southern Plains on Friday and drop southeast
toward the Gulf Coast over the weekend. This will result in a
somewhat unsettled pattern with rainy weather for Saturday and
Sunday. Temperatures will remain above normal for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024

A shortwave trough will move through the Tennessee Valley on
Tuesday. This will bring the potential for some ceilings and
perhaps a period of MVFR ceilings to MKL Tuesday afternoon. 
Otherwise VFR conditions should prevail through the period. Winds 
will increase west winds between 6-10 kts Tuesday morning, then 
veering NW Tuesday afternoon. 

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MSZ007-011-020.

TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS
AVIATION...CJC