379 FXUS64 KMEG 300404 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 1004 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1005 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Light winds and clear skies prevailed across the region at late evening. As expected, post-sunset temperatures have fallen quickly, especially near the TN River. Patchy valley fog has formed, with dewpoint depressions closing in on zero. Light southerly return flow is expected to develop overnight, in advance of an upper level trough dropping southeast through the middle MS River Valley. This return flow will have minimal impact on temps in sheltered valleys near the TN River, but may result in the Memphis and Jonesboro areas seeing overnight lows a few hours prior to sunrise. PWB && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 234 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Dry and warmer weather will continue into Tuesday as highs reaching the low to mid 60s over the southern half of the Mid- South. A mainly dry cold front will move through the region Tuesday afternoon and evening. Cooler air will move in behind the front with temperatures dropping below normal readings for Wednesday. Dry weather will prevail for Thursday and Friday with temperatures returning to above normal. The next chance for rain will be this weekend with the best chance occurring on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 234 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Clouds have finally exited the region this afternoon with temperatures in the 40s to around 50 degrees. High pressure is currently centered over east Arkansas. As the high moves northeast tonight, winds will shift to the south bringing milder air to region. Temperatures will not be as cold tonight with lows Tuesday morning in the 30s. On Tuesday, a cold front will drop south into the region during the afternoon and early evening hours. While most areas will be dry, there is a small chance for some light rain over the northeast corner of the Mid-South. Temperatures will be warmer ahead of the front with highs in the low to mid 60s over the southern half of the region. High pressure will build into the region behind the front Tuesday night with colder and drier air moving in. Temperatures will be a little cooler Tuesday night with lows Wednesday morning in the low to mid 30s. Temperatures will be below normal on Wednesday with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Dry weather will continue for Thursday and Friday as temperatures rebound and return to above normal readings. An upper level low will develop over the southern Plains on Friday and drop southeast toward the Gulf Coast over the weekend. This will result in a somewhat unsettled pattern with rainy weather for Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will remain above normal for the weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 A shortwave trough will move through the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. This will bring the potential for some ceilings and perhaps a period of MVFR ceilings to MKL Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise VFR conditions should prevail through the period. Winds will increase west winds between 6-10 kts Tuesday morning, then veering NW Tuesday afternoon. CJC && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MSZ007-011-020. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS AVIATION...CJC