061 
FXUS64 KMOB 271141
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
541 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024

Showers and storms over southeast Mississippi and extreme
southwestern Alabama progress eastward across the area through the
early afternoon hours as a cold front moves through the area. 
Mostly IFR to MVFR conditions are expected through tonight, though
an improvement to VFR conditions is possible this afternoon over 
southeast Mississippi and much of southwestern Alabama, but then 
an IFR/MVFR ceiling is expected to reform over this portion 
tonight. Southeasterly winds near 10 knots develop by mid morning 
then switch to the northwest as the front moves through. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024/ 

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 349 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024

An upper trof over the central states progresses well into the 
eastern states during the period, with an associated surface low
bringing a strong cold front through the forecast area today. A
squall line is expected to organize just ahead/along the front 
and progress fairly quickly through the forecast area from this 
morning through the early afternoon hours. After examining model 
soundings, there are two potential limiting factors for the 
strength of the squall line. The first of these continues to be 
concern about the quality of the lower level lapse rates, and a 
second is now apparent with the soundings very moist overall with 
little available DCAPE. Plenty of favorable shear is otherwise 
available should convection become surface or near-surface based,
but the limited DCAPE calls into question the ability for 
convection to be able to mix down the stronger flow aloft, and the
potential for less than favorable lower level lapse rates means
that most of the available CAPE may remain elevated. These 
limiting factors create uncertainty for the potential of severe 
storm development today, but will need to continue to closely 
monitor as there has been a LOT of uncertainty with the weather
pattern lately and things could change quickly to a more favorable
environment. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk of 
severe storms in effect for most of the area except for a Marginal
Risk mainly over the far western portion. Categorical pops this 
morning will be followed by dry conditions developing from west to
east through the early evening hours, with dry conditions 
continuing for Sunday as much drier and cooler air flows into the 
area in the wake of the front. Locally heavy rainfall is possible 
with the storms which may lead to flooding concerns. A high risk 
of rip currents continues through tonight, followed by a moderate 
risk for Sunday. Highs today will be 70-75, then Sunday will be 
much cooler with highs in the 50s. Lows tonight range from the 
lower 40s well inland to the mid 40s elsewhere. /29

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 349 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024

An upper ridge builds over the Plains, then shifts east to over 
the Mississippi River into mid week, shifting a mean upper trough 
over the eastern Conus to along the East Coast. Surface high 
pressure moving over the western Gulf brings southwest to westerly
low level flow back to the Southeast by Tuesday. This shift in 
low level flow, in combination with the building upper ridge, will
help to moderate temperatures early in the coming week. A strong 
shortwave system moves into the East Coast trough mid week, with a
cold front moving over the forecast area Wednesday into Wednesday
evening in response. With the moisture return ahead of the 
front's passage modest, and upper support from the passing upper 
system remaining well northwest of the forecast area due to the 
upper ridge, the frontal passage is expected to be rain free. 
Behind the front, temperatures see a small drop, but quickly 
rebound to above seasonal norms by Friday. 

Looking at the specifics, temperature wise, low temperatures in mid 
30s to around 40 Sunday and Monday nights rise to the low to mid 40s 
Tuesday night, then drop back into the mid 30s to around 40 for 
Wednesday and Thursday nights as a drier and a bit cooler airmass 
moves over the forecast area. High temperatures ranging from the 
upper 50s to around 60 Monday rise into the mid to upper 60s 
Wednesday. High temperatures see a small drop Thursday, into the low 
to mid 60s, but quickly rebound into the mid 60s for Friday.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 349 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024

Based on the latest observational trends, have cancelled the
marine Dense Fog Advisory for the Alabama bays and near shore
waters. While the Dense Fog Advisory has been cancelled, patchy 
fog will still be possible through mid morning. A Small Craft
Advisory is now in effect for the 20-60 nm portion beginning at 6
am this morning, then the 0-20 nm portion will have a Small Craft
Advisory in effect as well by 9 pm this evening. The Small Craft
Advisory ends over the 0-20 nm portion by 9 am Sunday then ends
over the 20-60 nm portion by 6 am Monday. Winds and seas will be
higher with storms mainly today. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  45  57  37  60  36  62  43 / 100   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Pensacola   73  46  57  41  58  39  60  46 / 100   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Destin      72  48  59  43  61  42  61  50 / 100  10   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Evergreen   75  43  56  36  59  33  63  40 / 100  10   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Waynesboro  72  43  53  34  58  33  64  40 / 100   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Camden      73  43  52  36  56  32  62  40 / 100   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Crestview   74  45  58  37  61  34  63  41 / 100  10   0   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Sunday 
     for GMZ650-655.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ670-675.

&&

$$

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