061 FXUS64 KMOB 271141 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 541 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 541 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Showers and storms over southeast Mississippi and extreme southwestern Alabama progress eastward across the area through the early afternoon hours as a cold front moves through the area. Mostly IFR to MVFR conditions are expected through tonight, though an improvement to VFR conditions is possible this afternoon over southeast Mississippi and much of southwestern Alabama, but then an IFR/MVFR ceiling is expected to reform over this portion tonight. Southeasterly winds near 10 knots develop by mid morning then switch to the northwest as the front moves through. /29 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024/ ..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Sunday) Issued at 349 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 An upper trof over the central states progresses well into the eastern states during the period, with an associated surface low bringing a strong cold front through the forecast area today. A squall line is expected to organize just ahead/along the front and progress fairly quickly through the forecast area from this morning through the early afternoon hours. After examining model soundings, there are two potential limiting factors for the strength of the squall line. The first of these continues to be concern about the quality of the lower level lapse rates, and a second is now apparent with the soundings very moist overall with little available DCAPE. Plenty of favorable shear is otherwise available should convection become surface or near-surface based, but the limited DCAPE calls into question the ability for convection to be able to mix down the stronger flow aloft, and the potential for less than favorable lower level lapse rates means that most of the available CAPE may remain elevated. These limiting factors create uncertainty for the potential of severe storm development today, but will need to continue to closely monitor as there has been a LOT of uncertainty with the weather pattern lately and things could change quickly to a more favorable environment. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk of severe storms in effect for most of the area except for a Marginal Risk mainly over the far western portion. Categorical pops this morning will be followed by dry conditions developing from west to east through the early evening hours, with dry conditions continuing for Sunday as much drier and cooler air flows into the area in the wake of the front. Locally heavy rainfall is possible with the storms which may lead to flooding concerns. A high risk of rip currents continues through tonight, followed by a moderate risk for Sunday. Highs today will be 70-75, then Sunday will be much cooler with highs in the 50s. Lows tonight range from the lower 40s well inland to the mid 40s elsewhere. /29 LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 349 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 An upper ridge builds over the Plains, then shifts east to over the Mississippi River into mid week, shifting a mean upper trough over the eastern Conus to along the East Coast. Surface high pressure moving over the western Gulf brings southwest to westerly low level flow back to the Southeast by Tuesday. This shift in low level flow, in combination with the building upper ridge, will help to moderate temperatures early in the coming week. A strong shortwave system moves into the East Coast trough mid week, with a cold front moving over the forecast area Wednesday into Wednesday evening in response. With the moisture return ahead of the front's passage modest, and upper support from the passing upper system remaining well northwest of the forecast area due to the upper ridge, the frontal passage is expected to be rain free. Behind the front, temperatures see a small drop, but quickly rebound to above seasonal norms by Friday. Looking at the specifics, temperature wise, low temperatures in mid 30s to around 40 Sunday and Monday nights rise to the low to mid 40s Tuesday night, then drop back into the mid 30s to around 40 for Wednesday and Thursday nights as a drier and a bit cooler airmass moves over the forecast area. High temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to around 60 Monday rise into the mid to upper 60s Wednesday. High temperatures see a small drop Thursday, into the low to mid 60s, but quickly rebound into the mid 60s for Friday. /16 MARINE... Issued at 349 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Based on the latest observational trends, have cancelled the marine Dense Fog Advisory for the Alabama bays and near shore waters. While the Dense Fog Advisory has been cancelled, patchy fog will still be possible through mid morning. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for the 20-60 nm portion beginning at 6 am this morning, then the 0-20 nm portion will have a Small Craft Advisory in effect as well by 9 pm this evening. The Small Craft Advisory ends over the 0-20 nm portion by 9 am Sunday then ends over the 20-60 nm portion by 6 am Monday. Winds and seas will be higher with storms mainly today. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 73 45 57 37 60 36 62 43 / 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 73 46 57 41 58 39 60 46 / 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 72 48 59 43 61 42 61 50 / 100 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 75 43 56 36 59 33 63 40 / 100 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 72 43 53 34 58 33 64 40 / 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 73 43 52 36 56 32 62 40 / 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 74 45 58 37 61 34 63 41 / 100 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Sunday for GMZ650-655. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ670-675. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob