306 
FXUS64 KAMA 142318
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
518 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 200 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024

Arctic air will remain across the panhandles for both today and
Monday. This will continue to cause the dangerously cold
temperatures for the panhandles that are 30 degrees or more below
normal. This will see highs remain below freezing with single 
digits to teens of most of the panhandles and overnight lows in 
the positive to negative single digits. While the winds are 
expected to remain relatively light they will be sufficient to 
cause very low wind chills in this arctic air mass. With wind 
chills going at to even below -25 F the Wind Chill Warning remains
in effect through Monday. A secondary push of arctic air on 
Monday will bring a little more moisture across the panhandles 
which may produce another round of light snow showers. The chances
of snow showers is minimal with no area having a greater than 10%
chance of seeing any snowfall. Even if these snow showers occur 
accumulations are not expected. 

SH

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024

As we head into the mid-week, models are expecting the cold air
mass to begin transitioning eastward as the present northwesterly
upper-level flow breakdowns into a more zonal pattern for the
Panhandles. Look for temperatures stay below freezing Tuesday with
afternoon highs expected to in the 20s to low 30s. However by
Wednesday, model agreement looks to see the Panhandles get cut off
from the polar jet for the day with more of a westerly and
southwesterly flow taking over in the mid to lower levels of the
atmosphere. This lower-level flow will aid in down sloping off the
Southern Rockies and bring a quick warm up of the area. With the
area quick to warm, chances are there to see locations to be back
in the 50s and low 60s by Wednesday afternoon. However, this warm
up is expected to stay very brief with model agreement quick to
bring in another frontal system late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. At this time, models continue to trend towards this
frontal passage being on the dry side with latest keeping chances
of precipitation under 10%. Still, look for temperatures to drop
once again behind the front with many locations back in the 30s to
low 40s by Friday. Meanwhile, overnight lows look to stay below
freezing for the majority of the week with 20s being the highest
they ever reach. 

Scoleri

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 508 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites over the 
next 24 hours. We are very close to that MVFR cig for KDHT and
KGUY, but overall cigs are expected to improve in the coming
hours. Winds will be 5-10kts mainly out of the northeast, and 
shifting southeast by 12z. After 18z winds will shift back out of 
the northeast as we get a reinforcement of cold air, and winds 
will be in the 15kt range. 

Weber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                17   1  15   4 /   0   0   0   0 
Beaver OK                   9  -4  10   1 /  20   0   0   0 
Boise City OK               8  -5   6  -4 /   0   0   0   0 
Borger TX                  18   3  15   6 /  10   0   0   0 
Boys Ranch TX              19   5  17   4 /   0   0   0   0 
Canyon TX                  21   2  18   4 /   0   0   0   0 
Clarendon TX               15   2  16   7 /  10   0   0   0 
Dalhart TX                 15  -2  12  -2 /   0   0   0   0 
Guymon OK                   9  -3  10   0 /  10   0   0   0 
Hereford TX                25   3  24   5 /   0   0   0   0 
Lipscomb TX                11  -3  11   3 /  20   0   0   0 
Pampa TX                   16   1  13   4 /  10   0   0   0 
Shamrock TX                15   0  14   6 /  10   0   0   0 
Wellington TX              15   2  15   7 /  10  10   0   0 

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Tuesday for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Tuesday for OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...89