306 FXUS64 KAMA 142318 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 518 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 200 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Arctic air will remain across the panhandles for both today and Monday. This will continue to cause the dangerously cold temperatures for the panhandles that are 30 degrees or more below normal. This will see highs remain below freezing with single digits to teens of most of the panhandles and overnight lows in the positive to negative single digits. While the winds are expected to remain relatively light they will be sufficient to cause very low wind chills in this arctic air mass. With wind chills going at to even below -25 F the Wind Chill Warning remains in effect through Monday. A secondary push of arctic air on Monday will bring a little more moisture across the panhandles which may produce another round of light snow showers. The chances of snow showers is minimal with no area having a greater than 10% chance of seeing any snowfall. Even if these snow showers occur accumulations are not expected. SH && .LONG TERM ... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 200 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 As we head into the mid-week, models are expecting the cold air mass to begin transitioning eastward as the present northwesterly upper-level flow breakdowns into a more zonal pattern for the Panhandles. Look for temperatures stay below freezing Tuesday with afternoon highs expected to in the 20s to low 30s. However by Wednesday, model agreement looks to see the Panhandles get cut off from the polar jet for the day with more of a westerly and southwesterly flow taking over in the mid to lower levels of the atmosphere. This lower-level flow will aid in down sloping off the Southern Rockies and bring a quick warm up of the area. With the area quick to warm, chances are there to see locations to be back in the 50s and low 60s by Wednesday afternoon. However, this warm up is expected to stay very brief with model agreement quick to bring in another frontal system late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. At this time, models continue to trend towards this frontal passage being on the dry side with latest keeping chances of precipitation under 10%. Still, look for temperatures to drop once again behind the front with many locations back in the 30s to low 40s by Friday. Meanwhile, overnight lows look to stay below freezing for the majority of the week with 20s being the highest they ever reach. Scoleri && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 508 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours. We are very close to that MVFR cig for KDHT and KGUY, but overall cigs are expected to improve in the coming hours. Winds will be 5-10kts mainly out of the northeast, and shifting southeast by 12z. After 18z winds will shift back out of the northeast as we get a reinforcement of cold air, and winds will be in the 15kt range. Weber && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 17 1 15 4 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 9 -4 10 1 / 20 0 0 0 Boise City OK 8 -5 6 -4 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 18 3 15 6 / 10 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 19 5 17 4 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 21 2 18 4 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 15 2 16 7 / 10 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 15 -2 12 -2 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 9 -3 10 0 / 10 0 0 0 Hereford TX 25 3 24 5 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 11 -3 11 3 / 20 0 0 0 Pampa TX 16 1 13 4 / 10 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 15 0 14 6 / 10 0 0 0 Wellington TX 15 2 15 7 / 10 10 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Tuesday for TXZ001>020-317. OK...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Tuesday for OKZ001>003. && $$ SHORT TERM...98 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...89