352 
FXUS63 KMKX 292054
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
254 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing potential for light accumulating snow Saturday
  night and Sunday morning. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 255 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023

Tonight through Saturday:

Low clouds continue to slowly scatter out from north to south,
with clearing continuing into the evening and overnight hours.
With clear conditions and dewpoints in the upper 20s to lower
30s lingering across southeastern Wisconsin, some potential 
exists for local areas of fog into tonight (especially according
to the NAM). However, drier air aloft will limit fog 
development across much of the area, with the GFS and Euro
indicating surface moisture will rapidly deplete tonight. Expect
low temperatures in the mid-20s.

Cloud cover will slowly increase throughout the day Saturday
ahead of a clipper system, with southwesterly breezes and breaks
of sun expected to bring high temperatures in the mid-30s.

MH

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 255 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023

Saturday night through Friday:

An incoming clipper system will begin to produce some scattered
snow showers early Saturday night, with the majority of snowfall
expected late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon in the
deformation region of the low. Modeling trended slightly
southward through today, leading to more of a spread of
solutions and less confidence in placement of any area with more
than an inch of total snowfall accumulation. However, still
anticipating measurable snow across much of southern Wisconsin,
with a stripe of accumulations around 1 inch most likely 
(45-55%) in northern portions of the CWA. With a lack of deep 
moisture and weak forcing, not anticipating more than an inch of
accumulations in most regions. Still, a few spots that see
repeated rounds of snow may see up to 1.5 inches. Temperatures
will remain at or below freezing throughout the event.

Snowfall moves out Sunday evening, with increasing northerly
winds behind the clipper bringing in additional cold air and
clear skies overnight. Expect lows in the lower 20s. Clear and
chilly conditions continue through Monday into Tuesday before
additional shortwaves impact the region with cloud cover,
northwesterly winds, and occasional snow showers through late
week.

MH

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 255 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023

Cloud cover continues to break up across the area, with IFR
conditions persisting in far southeastern Wisconsin. Clouds will
continue to dissipate into this evening, with clear skies
expected overnight. Low-lying areas in far southern Wisconsin may
see fog development tonight as moisture lingers, but any fog
will likely burn off quickly into the morning hours as dry air
aloft works its way to the surface. 

Light northwesterly winds tonight will shift to become
southwesterly Saturday ahead of a low pressure system. Cloud
cover in the 1-2 kft range looks to develop Saturday afternoon
as well, continuing through Saturday night. Snow showers
associated with the low are also expected Saturday night,
continuing into Sunday and potential bringing periods of IFR
conditions back into the region.

MH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 255 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023

Northerly breezes will continue to subside into tonight, becoming
light and variable overnight. An area of low pressure will then
move from western Lake Superior Saturday morning to western 
lower Michigan by early Sunday. Southwesterly breezes are 
expected ahead of this low on Saturday and Saturday night, 
before northerly winds increase behind it for Sunday and Sunday 
night. Winds are expected to remain below gale force, but will
likely reach Small Craft Advisory criteria. Winds will weaken 
and become westerly on Monday.

MH

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 3 PM Friday.

&&

$$

Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee