352 FXUS63 KMKX 292054 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 254 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increasing potential for light accumulating snow Saturday night and Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 255 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Tonight through Saturday: Low clouds continue to slowly scatter out from north to south, with clearing continuing into the evening and overnight hours. With clear conditions and dewpoints in the upper 20s to lower 30s lingering across southeastern Wisconsin, some potential exists for local areas of fog into tonight (especially according to the NAM). However, drier air aloft will limit fog development across much of the area, with the GFS and Euro indicating surface moisture will rapidly deplete tonight. Expect low temperatures in the mid-20s. Cloud cover will slowly increase throughout the day Saturday ahead of a clipper system, with southwesterly breezes and breaks of sun expected to bring high temperatures in the mid-30s. MH && .LONG TERM... Issued 255 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Saturday night through Friday: An incoming clipper system will begin to produce some scattered snow showers early Saturday night, with the majority of snowfall expected late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon in the deformation region of the low. Modeling trended slightly southward through today, leading to more of a spread of solutions and less confidence in placement of any area with more than an inch of total snowfall accumulation. However, still anticipating measurable snow across much of southern Wisconsin, with a stripe of accumulations around 1 inch most likely (45-55%) in northern portions of the CWA. With a lack of deep moisture and weak forcing, not anticipating more than an inch of accumulations in most regions. Still, a few spots that see repeated rounds of snow may see up to 1.5 inches. Temperatures will remain at or below freezing throughout the event. Snowfall moves out Sunday evening, with increasing northerly winds behind the clipper bringing in additional cold air and clear skies overnight. Expect lows in the lower 20s. Clear and chilly conditions continue through Monday into Tuesday before additional shortwaves impact the region with cloud cover, northwesterly winds, and occasional snow showers through late week. MH && .AVIATION... Issued 255 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Cloud cover continues to break up across the area, with IFR conditions persisting in far southeastern Wisconsin. Clouds will continue to dissipate into this evening, with clear skies expected overnight. Low-lying areas in far southern Wisconsin may see fog development tonight as moisture lingers, but any fog will likely burn off quickly into the morning hours as dry air aloft works its way to the surface. Light northwesterly winds tonight will shift to become southwesterly Saturday ahead of a low pressure system. Cloud cover in the 1-2 kft range looks to develop Saturday afternoon as well, continuing through Saturday night. Snow showers associated with the low are also expected Saturday night, continuing into Sunday and potential bringing periods of IFR conditions back into the region. MH && .MARINE... Issued 255 PM CST Fri Dec 29 2023 Northerly breezes will continue to subside into tonight, becoming light and variable overnight. An area of low pressure will then move from western Lake Superior Saturday morning to western lower Michigan by early Sunday. Southwesterly breezes are expected ahead of this low on Saturday and Saturday night, before northerly winds increase behind it for Sunday and Sunday night. Winds are expected to remain below gale force, but will likely reach Small Craft Advisory criteria. Winds will weaken and become westerly on Monday. MH && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 3 PM Friday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee