722 
FXUS63 KDMX 280939
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
339 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023

.DISCUSSION.../Today through Wednesday/
Issued at 339 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023

Key messages:

- Another round of light snow east/southeast this afternoon and 
evening

- Dry with seasonal temperatures Fri into next week

The prolonged effects of the slow moving Midwest upper low will 
continue to drive our weather into tonight with one last trip of 
QG forcing and theta-e advection around the sprawling occluded 
cyclone through the MS Valley before finally departing into the OH
Valley Friday. Early this morning a minor surge of drier air has 
entered northern IA ending any flurry potential with clearing 
north and ceilings lifting south. This respite will be short lived
however with the current southern MO/IL PV anomaly making one 
last rotation around the upper low before opening up into the 
eastern CONUS to end the week. This progression and an atypical 
NE-SW movement will push the current area of eastern Great Lakes 
moisture and deep thermodynamic and kinematic forcing into eastern
IA later today and this evening. High resolution HREF probabilities
are not as aggressive this far west, but much of the other 
ensemble guidance suggests 80%+ probabilities of measurable 
precipitation into southeast sections for a short period which 
should result in minor light snow accumulations (<1"). Farther 
north and west, the chances drop to <=20% central with dry 
conditions anticipated farther north and west, all with somewhat 
brisk NW winds.

The system should exit by tomorrow with a return to our familiar
pattern of varied degrees of northwest flow aloft and dry
conditions. Guidance has been fairly consistent dropping an upper
low through the Upper MS Valley Saturday night. Although the lift
and QG forcing with this system is sufficient late in the day, 
examination of soundings note that sufficiently deep moisture and
saturation is lacking keeping the forecast dry. Temperatures will
be on the mild side of normal Saturday, but the frontal passage 
associated with this system will drop temps back to more seasonal 
values into next week.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night/
Issued at 1125 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023

While low clouds remain over portions of the state, all TAF sites
have returned to VFR and should remain that way through the
remainder of the morning. However, low clouds will fill in again from
north to south through the day today, bringing MVFR to 
potentially IFR conditions by the afternoon and evening. Winds
will also increase out of the north northwest today with gusts
over 20 kts expected area wide. A few snow showers remain possible
at KOTM and KALO in the afternoon, but the better chances are
trending east.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Small
AVIATION...Dodson