722 FXUS63 KDMX 280939 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 339 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 .DISCUSSION.../Today through Wednesday/ Issued at 339 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 Key messages: - Another round of light snow east/southeast this afternoon and evening - Dry with seasonal temperatures Fri into next week The prolonged effects of the slow moving Midwest upper low will continue to drive our weather into tonight with one last trip of QG forcing and theta-e advection around the sprawling occluded cyclone through the MS Valley before finally departing into the OH Valley Friday. Early this morning a minor surge of drier air has entered northern IA ending any flurry potential with clearing north and ceilings lifting south. This respite will be short lived however with the current southern MO/IL PV anomaly making one last rotation around the upper low before opening up into the eastern CONUS to end the week. This progression and an atypical NE-SW movement will push the current area of eastern Great Lakes moisture and deep thermodynamic and kinematic forcing into eastern IA later today and this evening. High resolution HREF probabilities are not as aggressive this far west, but much of the other ensemble guidance suggests 80%+ probabilities of measurable precipitation into southeast sections for a short period which should result in minor light snow accumulations (<1"). Farther north and west, the chances drop to <=20% central with dry conditions anticipated farther north and west, all with somewhat brisk NW winds. The system should exit by tomorrow with a return to our familiar pattern of varied degrees of northwest flow aloft and dry conditions. Guidance has been fairly consistent dropping an upper low through the Upper MS Valley Saturday night. Although the lift and QG forcing with this system is sufficient late in the day, examination of soundings note that sufficiently deep moisture and saturation is lacking keeping the forecast dry. Temperatures will be on the mild side of normal Saturday, but the frontal passage associated with this system will drop temps back to more seasonal values into next week. && .AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night/ Issued at 1125 PM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 While low clouds remain over portions of the state, all TAF sites have returned to VFR and should remain that way through the remainder of the morning. However, low clouds will fill in again from north to south through the day today, bringing MVFR to potentially IFR conditions by the afternoon and evening. Winds will also increase out of the north northwest today with gusts over 20 kts expected area wide. A few snow showers remain possible at KOTM and KALO in the afternoon, but the better chances are trending east. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Small AVIATION...Dodson