851 
FXUS63 KARX 151745
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1145 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances move in across portions of the forecast area
  today and increase (50-85%) tonight into Saturday. Some areas
  across far northern Taylor County could see some light snow 
  mix in Saturday morning.
 
- Monday looks to be a bit cooler than we have seen in the past
  few days, with highs in the upper 20s to near 30. However,
  temperatures look to bounce back up to above normal again
  through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 431 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023

Precipitation Chances Today - Saturday:

GOES water vapor imagery reveals an upper level low around the 
Southern Plains with another low noted over southern BC/Alberta 
Canada. These systems will be part of a focus for our expected 
precipitation chances today into Saturday. Through the period the 
southern system is expected to eventually lift northeastward towards 
the region while the northern stream system dives down across the 
Northern Plains. Current hi-res guidance suggests precipitation 
developing across portions of northern Wisconsin in an area of 
frontogenesis during the day today, with precipitation chances 
increasing and becoming more widespread over the region overnight as 
the upper level systems approach and eventually phase. 

The 15.00Z HREF suggests highest QPF just to the west of the 
forecast area with portions of southeast Minnesota into north-
central Wisconsin right on the edge/line of these higher QPF values 
(0.25-0.5"), with a gradient as you move eastward/southeastward 
across the forecast area (in the 0.01-0.15" range). Rain continues 
to be the favored precipitation type. However, there continues to be 
some signal in model guidance for snow to mix in across north-
central WI. The 15.00Z HREF probabilities suggest a 10-30% chance of 
seeing measurable snowfall across parts of Taylor county, with 
probabilities of 30-50% clipping the northern portion/corner of the 
county. This signal has been fairly consistent in guidance, so some 
very light accumulations have been mentioned in the forecast.   

Cooler Monday, Little Signal For Precip Next Week:

The system looks to depart by late Saturday with quieter weather 
into Sunday with highs in the 30s to low 40s across the area. 
However, going into Monday model guidance suggest much cooler air 
moving into the area, with low temperatures Monday morning 
dropping into the upper teens to low 20s and keeping high 
temperatures during the day only in the upper 20s to near 30. 
The upper level pattern turns more zonal by mid-week with 
temperatures forecast to return back towards the upper 30s to 
low 40s. There remains little signal in the ensemble guidance 
for precipitation through at least mid-week next week, with some
signal returning towards the weekend. There remains low 
confidence with quite a bit of spread in ensemble solutions this
far out. With the holiday coming up it will be a time period to
keep an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023

VFR conditions this afternoon gradual erode to MVFR levels
overnight due to rain and lower ceilings along and northwest of
an AUM to MDZ line, with the highest probabilities of IFR 
conditions residing slightly further to the northwest. These
conditions spread east for the day on Saturday, but confidence
is lower on whether IFR levels will be reached, thus have kept
MVFR conditions in the LSE/RST TAFs for this update. Light
southeast winds around 5 kts this afternoon back to the ESE for
the overnight and into Saturday.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EMS
AVIATION...Skow