851 FXUS63 KARX 151745 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1145 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances move in across portions of the forecast area today and increase (50-85%) tonight into Saturday. Some areas across far northern Taylor County could see some light snow mix in Saturday morning. - Monday looks to be a bit cooler than we have seen in the past few days, with highs in the upper 20s to near 30. However, temperatures look to bounce back up to above normal again through the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 431 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Precipitation Chances Today - Saturday: GOES water vapor imagery reveals an upper level low around the Southern Plains with another low noted over southern BC/Alberta Canada. These systems will be part of a focus for our expected precipitation chances today into Saturday. Through the period the southern system is expected to eventually lift northeastward towards the region while the northern stream system dives down across the Northern Plains. Current hi-res guidance suggests precipitation developing across portions of northern Wisconsin in an area of frontogenesis during the day today, with precipitation chances increasing and becoming more widespread over the region overnight as the upper level systems approach and eventually phase. The 15.00Z HREF suggests highest QPF just to the west of the forecast area with portions of southeast Minnesota into north- central Wisconsin right on the edge/line of these higher QPF values (0.25-0.5"), with a gradient as you move eastward/southeastward across the forecast area (in the 0.01-0.15" range). Rain continues to be the favored precipitation type. However, there continues to be some signal in model guidance for snow to mix in across north- central WI. The 15.00Z HREF probabilities suggest a 10-30% chance of seeing measurable snowfall across parts of Taylor county, with probabilities of 30-50% clipping the northern portion/corner of the county. This signal has been fairly consistent in guidance, so some very light accumulations have been mentioned in the forecast. Cooler Monday, Little Signal For Precip Next Week: The system looks to depart by late Saturday with quieter weather into Sunday with highs in the 30s to low 40s across the area. However, going into Monday model guidance suggest much cooler air moving into the area, with low temperatures Monday morning dropping into the upper teens to low 20s and keeping high temperatures during the day only in the upper 20s to near 30. The upper level pattern turns more zonal by mid-week with temperatures forecast to return back towards the upper 30s to low 40s. There remains little signal in the ensemble guidance for precipitation through at least mid-week next week, with some signal returning towards the weekend. There remains low confidence with quite a bit of spread in ensemble solutions this far out. With the holiday coming up it will be a time period to keep an eye on. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1140 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 VFR conditions this afternoon gradual erode to MVFR levels overnight due to rain and lower ceilings along and northwest of an AUM to MDZ line, with the highest probabilities of IFR conditions residing slightly further to the northwest. These conditions spread east for the day on Saturday, but confidence is lower on whether IFR levels will be reached, thus have kept MVFR conditions in the LSE/RST TAFs for this update. Light southeast winds around 5 kts this afternoon back to the ESE for the overnight and into Saturday. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EMS AVIATION...Skow