AFOS product AFDABQ
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDABQ
Product Timestamp: 2023-09-20 00:00 UTC

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FXUS65 KABQ 200000 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
600 PM MDT Tue Sep 19 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 201 PM MDT Tue Sep 19 2023

A few showers are possible near the Colorado border this afternoon, 
but otherwise dry weather will prevail through at least tomorrow 
morning. Clouds increase from the west on Wednesday then light, fast-
moving showers trek across the state trek from the southwest to the 
northeast late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening. Gusty 
and erratic winds are possible near any virga or showers that 
develop during this timeframe. Breezy southwest winds increase from 
the west on Thursday then become westerly on Friday and Saturday. 
Dry weather and steadily increasing temperatures are likely this 
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 201 PM MDT Tue Sep 19 2023

The westerlies are bringing in a drier airmass, resulting in a 
significant downtrend in PWATs and surface dewpoint temperatures. 
Dewpoint temperatures are currently an average 10 degrees below 
observed values form 24hrs ago and forecast to continue the 
downtrend through the afternoon hours. The drying is leading to a 
notable downtick in daytime heating triggered convection compared to 
yesterday. A few showers or storms across the northern mountains 
will move east into the adjacent highlands and far northeast plains 
later today, but very little measurable rainfall is expected outside 
of the higher elevations. Another relatively cool night is forecast 
with near-ideal radiational cooling conditions after winds decouple 
this evening. The slug of moisture advertised to come up from the 
south Wednesday night is now forecast to arrive a little sooner and 
will result in increasing clouds from southwest to northeast across 
the area during the day. A few sprinkles or virga showers are likely 
across the west central and southwest mountains Wednesday afternoon. 
A top-down moistening will continue Wednesday night and result in 
isolated to scattered showers, with some thunder possible across 
southern portions of the area. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 201 PM MDT Tue Sep 19 2023

Since models have sped-up the incoming trough, winds will also 
increase earlier than previously thought. A speed max of around 80 
knots will edge into west-central NM Thursday afternoon and generate 
wind gusts up to 35 KT as the very dry airmass mixes down to the 
surface. A Wind Advisory may be needed if winds continue to trend 
upwards, but no highlights are expected based on current guidance. 
Winds have trended down on Friday since the jet max is now expected 
to lift northward into Colorado as a vort max rotates around the 
broader Great Basin trough. There is considerable uncertainty in the 
models with regard to how dry it will get across northern and 
central areas on Friday afternoon. GFS MOS guidance shows dewpoints 
in the single digits and teens across north-central areas while the 
NBM shows dewpoints in upper 30s over the same locations. This will 
make a considerable difference with regard to potential critical 
fire weather conditions on Friday afternoon (See Fire Weather 
Discussion). 

A dry cold front will swing through Friday night, changing winds 
from the southwest to the west and dropping temps 5-10 degrees. A 
fast-moving westerly wave may quickly eject inland on Saturday and 
draw modest mid-level moisture into western NM along with it. Even 
with this moisture, the dry post-frontal atmosphere in place will 
make it difficult for widespread convection, but a few high based 
showers and storms cannot be ruled out. The EC is much slower with 
this feature and doesn't show it entering western NM until late 
Sunday with considerably less moisture to work with. Guidance is in 
good agreement that ridging will rapidly build in place over the 
Intermountain West early next week. This could allow some Gulf 
moisture to be advected into eastern NM, but only a slight uptick in 
PoPs is reflected by the current forecast given the disparity in the 
ensemble data.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 PM MDT Tue Sep 19 2023

VFR to prevail throughout the TAF period. Dry wly flow will
continue to allow winds to gust in the early evening, diminishing
aft sunset. Expect winds to become light and vrb aft 20/03Z most 
terminals. Increasing mid to high lvl moisture will allow for
greater cloud coverage tomorrow aftn. Breezy wly to swly winds 
can be expected in the aftn amongst dry conditions. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 201 PM MDT Tue Sep 19 2023

A drying/warming trend is in play as the westerlies bring in a drier 
airmass. Minimal chances for wetting rain will be confined to areas 
near the CO border across north central and northeast NM through 
this evening. A slug of moisture will move north over the area late 
Wednesday into Thursday resulting in increased cloud cover and some 
showers, but with low chances for wetting rain. The westerlies will 
trend back up Thu/Fri as an upper low moves from the Great Basin 
through the central/southern Rockies. Stronger winds will hit 
western NM Thursday and will result in spotty critical fire weather 
conditions near the AZ border from near Gallup north to the Four 
Corners. Elevated fire weather conditions are forecast across much 
of the area Friday, with critical fire weather conditions across 
northeast NM. However, forecast wind speeds are trending down for 
Friday and ERCs are currently not supportive of large fire growth. 
Stronger westerlies are forecast to persist Saturday as a weak 
Pacific front moves through, bringing minimal chances for wetting 
rain to western and central NM. An upper level ridge will build over 
the region from Sunday through Tuesday, bringing a warming trend 
with less wind.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  45  80  48  80 /   0   5  20   5 
Dulce...........................  36  76  41  75 /   5   5  30  10 
Cuba............................  41  74  47  76 /   0   5  20   5 
Gallup..........................  35  77  43  77 /   0   5  10   0 
El Morro........................  37  74  44  75 /   0  10  20   5 
Grants..........................  34  77  43  80 /   0   5  20  10 
Quemado.........................  43  76  46  76 /   0  10  20   5 
Magdalena.......................  49  79  54  79 /   0  10  20  20 
Datil...........................  45  74  48  75 /   0  10  20  10 
Reserve.........................  44  79  47  79 /   0  10  20   5 
Glenwood........................  54  83  56  83 /   0  10  20   5 
Chama...........................  37  71  40  69 /  10   5  30  10 
Los Alamos......................  50  75  52  74 /   0   5  20  20 
Pecos...........................  46  77  49  76 /   0   5  20  10 
Cerro/Questa....................  34  73  39  72 /  10   5  20   5 
Red River.......................  33  67  37  66 /  10   5  20   5 
Angel Fire......................  29  70  35  68 /   5   5  20   5 
Taos............................  37  76  42  74 /   5   5  20   0 
Mora............................  42  76  45  73 /   0   0  20  10 
Espanola........................  45  82  50  81 /   0   5  20   5 
Santa Fe........................  49  77  52  75 /   0   5  20  10 
Santa Fe Airport................  45  79  51  78 /   0   5  20   5 
Albuquerque Foothills...........  53  81  56  82 /   0   5  20  10 
Albuquerque Heights.............  52  82  57  84 /   0   5  20   5 
Albuquerque Valley..............  49  83  56  86 /   0   5  20   5 
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  52  82  56  84 /   0   5  20   5 
Belen...........................  50  84  56  87 /   0   5  20   5 
Bernalillo......................  49  84  54  86 /   0   5  20   5 
Bosque Farms....................  47  83  53  85 /   0   5  20  10 
Corrales........................  50  84  55  85 /   0   5  20   5 
Los Lunas.......................  48  83  53  86 /   0   5  20  10 
Placitas........................  51  81  55  81 /   0   5  20   5 
Rio Rancho......................  51  82  56  84 /   0   5  20   5 
Socorro.........................  54  86  58  87 /   0   5  20  10 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  49  75  52  75 /   0   5  20  10 
Tijeras.........................  50  78  53  78 /   0   5  20  10 
Edgewood........................  46  79  50  79 /   0   5  20  10 
Moriarty/Estancia...............  41  81  47  80 /   0   5  20  10 
Clines Corners..................  46  78  50  78 /   0   0  20  10 
Mountainair.....................  48  79  52  79 /   0   5  20  10 
Gran Quivira....................  50  80  53  79 /   0   5  30  20 
Carrizozo.......................  57  83  59  82 /   0   5  40  20 
Ruidoso.........................  51  76  53  76 /   0  10  40  30 
Capulin.........................  44  78  49  76 /  20   5  10   5 
Raton...........................  42  81  47  79 /  20   5  10   0 
Springer........................  43  84  48  82 /  10   0  10   5 
Las Vegas.......................  44  80  48  78 /   0   0  20  10 
Clayton.........................  53  86  58  85 /  20   0  10   5 
Roy.............................  49  83  55  82 /   0   0  20  10 
Conchas.........................  52  90  58  89 /   0   0  20  10 
Santa Rosa......................  52  87  58  84 /   0   0  20  20 
Tucumcari.......................  53  90  59  89 /   0   0  20   5 
Clovis..........................  55  89  62  87 /   0   0  20  10 
Portales........................  55  91  63  88 /   0   0  20  20 
Fort Sumner.....................  54  90  61  88 /   0   0  20  10 
Roswell.........................  59  95  66  93 /   0   0  30  20 
Picacho.........................  56  89  60  85 /   0   5  30  20 
Elk.............................  54  85  57  83 /   0   5  30  20 

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...12