332 FXUS65 KABQ 200000 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 600 PM MDT Tue Sep 19 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 201 PM MDT Tue Sep 19 2023 A few showers are possible near the Colorado border this afternoon, but otherwise dry weather will prevail through at least tomorrow morning. Clouds increase from the west on Wednesday then light, fast- moving showers trek across the state trek from the southwest to the northeast late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening. Gusty and erratic winds are possible near any virga or showers that develop during this timeframe. Breezy southwest winds increase from the west on Thursday then become westerly on Friday and Saturday. Dry weather and steadily increasing temperatures are likely this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 201 PM MDT Tue Sep 19 2023 The westerlies are bringing in a drier airmass, resulting in a significant downtrend in PWATs and surface dewpoint temperatures. Dewpoint temperatures are currently an average 10 degrees below observed values form 24hrs ago and forecast to continue the downtrend through the afternoon hours. The drying is leading to a notable downtick in daytime heating triggered convection compared to yesterday. A few showers or storms across the northern mountains will move east into the adjacent highlands and far northeast plains later today, but very little measurable rainfall is expected outside of the higher elevations. Another relatively cool night is forecast with near-ideal radiational cooling conditions after winds decouple this evening. The slug of moisture advertised to come up from the south Wednesday night is now forecast to arrive a little sooner and will result in increasing clouds from southwest to northeast across the area during the day. A few sprinkles or virga showers are likely across the west central and southwest mountains Wednesday afternoon. A top-down moistening will continue Wednesday night and result in isolated to scattered showers, with some thunder possible across southern portions of the area. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 201 PM MDT Tue Sep 19 2023 Since models have sped-up the incoming trough, winds will also increase earlier than previously thought. A speed max of around 80 knots will edge into west-central NM Thursday afternoon and generate wind gusts up to 35 KT as the very dry airmass mixes down to the surface. A Wind Advisory may be needed if winds continue to trend upwards, but no highlights are expected based on current guidance. Winds have trended down on Friday since the jet max is now expected to lift northward into Colorado as a vort max rotates around the broader Great Basin trough. There is considerable uncertainty in the models with regard to how dry it will get across northern and central areas on Friday afternoon. GFS MOS guidance shows dewpoints in the single digits and teens across north-central areas while the NBM shows dewpoints in upper 30s over the same locations. This will make a considerable difference with regard to potential critical fire weather conditions on Friday afternoon (See Fire Weather Discussion). A dry cold front will swing through Friday night, changing winds from the southwest to the west and dropping temps 5-10 degrees. A fast-moving westerly wave may quickly eject inland on Saturday and draw modest mid-level moisture into western NM along with it. Even with this moisture, the dry post-frontal atmosphere in place will make it difficult for widespread convection, but a few high based showers and storms cannot be ruled out. The EC is much slower with this feature and doesn't show it entering western NM until late Sunday with considerably less moisture to work with. Guidance is in good agreement that ridging will rapidly build in place over the Intermountain West early next week. This could allow some Gulf moisture to be advected into eastern NM, but only a slight uptick in PoPs is reflected by the current forecast given the disparity in the ensemble data. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 550 PM MDT Tue Sep 19 2023 VFR to prevail throughout the TAF period. Dry wly flow will continue to allow winds to gust in the early evening, diminishing aft sunset. Expect winds to become light and vrb aft 20/03Z most terminals. Increasing mid to high lvl moisture will allow for greater cloud coverage tomorrow aftn. Breezy wly to swly winds can be expected in the aftn amongst dry conditions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 201 PM MDT Tue Sep 19 2023 A drying/warming trend is in play as the westerlies bring in a drier airmass. Minimal chances for wetting rain will be confined to areas near the CO border across north central and northeast NM through this evening. A slug of moisture will move north over the area late Wednesday into Thursday resulting in increased cloud cover and some showers, but with low chances for wetting rain. The westerlies will trend back up Thu/Fri as an upper low moves from the Great Basin through the central/southern Rockies. Stronger winds will hit western NM Thursday and will result in spotty critical fire weather conditions near the AZ border from near Gallup north to the Four Corners. Elevated fire weather conditions are forecast across much of the area Friday, with critical fire weather conditions across northeast NM. However, forecast wind speeds are trending down for Friday and ERCs are currently not supportive of large fire growth. Stronger westerlies are forecast to persist Saturday as a weak Pacific front moves through, bringing minimal chances for wetting rain to western and central NM. An upper level ridge will build over the region from Sunday through Tuesday, bringing a warming trend with less wind. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 45 80 48 80 / 0 5 20 5 Dulce........................... 36 76 41 75 / 5 5 30 10 Cuba............................ 41 74 47 76 / 0 5 20 5 Gallup.......................... 35 77 43 77 / 0 5 10 0 El Morro........................ 37 74 44 75 / 0 10 20 5 Grants.......................... 34 77 43 80 / 0 5 20 10 Quemado......................... 43 76 46 76 / 0 10 20 5 Magdalena....................... 49 79 54 79 / 0 10 20 20 Datil........................... 45 74 48 75 / 0 10 20 10 Reserve......................... 44 79 47 79 / 0 10 20 5 Glenwood........................ 54 83 56 83 / 0 10 20 5 Chama........................... 37 71 40 69 / 10 5 30 10 Los Alamos...................... 50 75 52 74 / 0 5 20 20 Pecos........................... 46 77 49 76 / 0 5 20 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 34 73 39 72 / 10 5 20 5 Red River....................... 33 67 37 66 / 10 5 20 5 Angel Fire...................... 29 70 35 68 / 5 5 20 5 Taos............................ 37 76 42 74 / 5 5 20 0 Mora............................ 42 76 45 73 / 0 0 20 10 Espanola........................ 45 82 50 81 / 0 5 20 5 Santa Fe........................ 49 77 52 75 / 0 5 20 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 45 79 51 78 / 0 5 20 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 53 81 56 82 / 0 5 20 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 52 82 57 84 / 0 5 20 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 49 83 56 86 / 0 5 20 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 52 82 56 84 / 0 5 20 5 Belen........................... 50 84 56 87 / 0 5 20 5 Bernalillo...................... 49 84 54 86 / 0 5 20 5 Bosque Farms.................... 47 83 53 85 / 0 5 20 10 Corrales........................ 50 84 55 85 / 0 5 20 5 Los Lunas....................... 48 83 53 86 / 0 5 20 10 Placitas........................ 51 81 55 81 / 0 5 20 5 Rio Rancho...................... 51 82 56 84 / 0 5 20 5 Socorro......................... 54 86 58 87 / 0 5 20 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 49 75 52 75 / 0 5 20 10 Tijeras......................... 50 78 53 78 / 0 5 20 10 Edgewood........................ 46 79 50 79 / 0 5 20 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 41 81 47 80 / 0 5 20 10 Clines Corners.................. 46 78 50 78 / 0 0 20 10 Mountainair..................... 48 79 52 79 / 0 5 20 10 Gran Quivira.................... 50 80 53 79 / 0 5 30 20 Carrizozo....................... 57 83 59 82 / 0 5 40 20 Ruidoso......................... 51 76 53 76 / 0 10 40 30 Capulin......................... 44 78 49 76 / 20 5 10 5 Raton........................... 42 81 47 79 / 20 5 10 0 Springer........................ 43 84 48 82 / 10 0 10 5 Las Vegas....................... 44 80 48 78 / 0 0 20 10 Clayton......................... 53 86 58 85 / 20 0 10 5 Roy............................. 49 83 55 82 / 0 0 20 10 Conchas......................... 52 90 58 89 / 0 0 20 10 Santa Rosa...................... 52 87 58 84 / 0 0 20 20 Tucumcari....................... 53 90 59 89 / 0 0 20 5 Clovis.......................... 55 89 62 87 / 0 0 20 10 Portales........................ 55 91 63 88 / 0 0 20 20 Fort Sumner..................... 54 90 61 88 / 0 0 20 10 Roswell......................... 59 95 66 93 / 0 0 30 20 Picacho......................... 56 89 60 85 / 0 5 30 20 Elk............................. 54 85 57 83 / 0 5 30 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...12