551 
FXUS64 KMOB 121544
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1044 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1044 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023

A line of showers and storms is currently ongoing for areas along
and southeast of the I-65 corridor. Forcing is being driven by 
passing shortwave energy moving through the flow aloft, and a weak
surface boundary approaching the area from the northwest. Expect
these showers and storms to continue slowing tracking east through
the rest of the day, with a potential uptick along the immediate
coast with the afternoon seabreeze. JEH/88


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 604 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023/ 

..New AVIATION...

AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023

VFR conditions prevail for the most part today across the forecast
area. A slightly higher coverage of storms can be expected today,
particularly nearer the coast. Underneath any showers and storms,
expect temporary reductions in ceiling and visibility to or below
IFR category. MM/25

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 428 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023/ 

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 428 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023

Upper level troughing continues to dig into the eastern CONUS
during the near term period. At the surface, a weak cold front 
begins working its way into the forecast area as we head into 
Wednesday. The gradual increase in low to mid level moisture and 
approaching front serving as a forcing mechanism should allow for 
at least isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to 
develop across the area today and Wednesday. Better chances will 
likely remain confined nearer the I-65 corridor and points south 
today focused around the sea-breeze boundary, while all locations 
will see better chances Wednesday afternoon as the front moves in.

Forecast highs today are a little tricky nearer the coast as
morning convection over the marine area may attempt to move 
onshore mid to late morning. If this is the case, temperatures may
stay on the cooler side of guidance only topping out in the upper
80's to near 90. On the other hand, lesser convective coverage 
through early afternoon would promote more robust surface heating 
allowing temperatures to warm into the lower to perhaps even 
middle 90's. Have opted to raise temperatures in this area off of 
the NBM in favor of more isolated convective coverage, taking a 
middle ground of lower 90's for coastal regions. Elsewhere, lower 
to middle 90's are likely today. Tonight, lows dip into the upper 
60's inland with lower 70's nearer the coast. A few spots on the 
immediate coast likely won't make it below the middle 70's. 
Wednesday high temperatures will likely be similar across coastal 
areas to what they were on Tuesday in the lower 90's. Inland, 
however, will likely see cooler temperatures behind the 
aforementioned front with highs generally in the middle to upper 
80's. A low risk of rip currents remains through the week. MM/25

SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 428 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023

A primarily zonal mid to upper moist flow pattern will prevail 
across our forecast area through the period as the base of an
upper trough over the northeast/mid Atlantic states lifts
northeastward. A slow moving surface frontal boundary near the
I-65 corridor will slip southward off the coast by midnight and
stall over the northern Gulf through Thursday. Deep layer moisture
will remain elevated across our forecast area, with PWATs
remaining nearly steady between 1.7-2.0 inches.

A few showers and storms should linger near the coast Wednesday 
evening close the southward moving surface boundary before drying
out through the overnight hours. The best chance of precipitation
on Thursday afternoon will be near the coast at 30%. Will keep a
20% chance across most inland areas, except for dry conditions
across our far northwest zones. This convection should dissipate
rather quickly by sunset, although a few showers may linger at the
coast through the overnight hours.

Low temperatures through the period will range from the mid 60s
well inland to the low/mid 70s close to the coast. High temps on 
Thursday will generally range from the mid/upper 80s interior
areas to the lower 90s over the southern third of the area. /22

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 428 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023

The zonal flow pattern aloft generally continues over the region
through the latter part of the week before another upper trough 
amplifies over the northern/central Plains on Friday and moves 
across the Mississippi and Tennessee Valley regions on Saturday.
This trough will continue to dig southward over the eastern CONUS
on Sunday with the base extending as far south as the central 
Gulf by late Sunday night. Moisture will remain sufficient along 
with transient impulses in the W-NW flow aloft to support a slight
chance to a chance (20-40% coverage) of showers and thunderstorms
Friday and through the weekend. Dry conditions may return on 
Monday behind the passing trough and associated cold front. High 
temperatures should continue to range in the mid to upper 80s 
inland to around 90 degrees along the coast through the extended 
period. Lows generally range in the 60s over inland areas with 
lower to mid 70s along the immediate coast and beaches. /22

MARINE...
Issued at 428 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023

No impacts expected throughout the forecast period other than 
locally higher winds and seas possible near any storms. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      72  92  70  90  70  91  70  89 /  20  50  20  20  10  30  20  40 
Pensacola   75  92  73  90  73  89  73  87 /  20  50  20  30  20  40  20  40 
Destin      77  91  75  91  75  89  74  89 /  20  50  20  30  20  40  20  30 
Evergreen   68  92  67  90  67  89  65  89 /  20  50  10  20  10  30  10  30 
Waynesboro  68  88  67  87  64  89  67  88 /  20  30  10  10  10  20  10  40 
Camden      67  87  66  86  66  85  65  84 /  20  40  10  10  10  20  10  30 
Crestview   69  94  68  91  68  91  66  89 /  20  50  10  30  10  40  10  30 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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