551 FXUS64 KMOB 121544 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1044 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1044 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 A line of showers and storms is currently ongoing for areas along and southeast of the I-65 corridor. Forcing is being driven by passing shortwave energy moving through the flow aloft, and a weak surface boundary approaching the area from the northwest. Expect these showers and storms to continue slowing tracking east through the rest of the day, with a potential uptick along the immediate coast with the afternoon seabreeze. JEH/88 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 604 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023/ ..New AVIATION... AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 VFR conditions prevail for the most part today across the forecast area. A slightly higher coverage of storms can be expected today, particularly nearer the coast. Underneath any showers and storms, expect temporary reductions in ceiling and visibility to or below IFR category. MM/25 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 428 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023/ .New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Wednesday) Issued at 428 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 Upper level troughing continues to dig into the eastern CONUS during the near term period. At the surface, a weak cold front begins working its way into the forecast area as we head into Wednesday. The gradual increase in low to mid level moisture and approaching front serving as a forcing mechanism should allow for at least isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop across the area today and Wednesday. Better chances will likely remain confined nearer the I-65 corridor and points south today focused around the sea-breeze boundary, while all locations will see better chances Wednesday afternoon as the front moves in. Forecast highs today are a little tricky nearer the coast as morning convection over the marine area may attempt to move onshore mid to late morning. If this is the case, temperatures may stay on the cooler side of guidance only topping out in the upper 80's to near 90. On the other hand, lesser convective coverage through early afternoon would promote more robust surface heating allowing temperatures to warm into the lower to perhaps even middle 90's. Have opted to raise temperatures in this area off of the NBM in favor of more isolated convective coverage, taking a middle ground of lower 90's for coastal regions. Elsewhere, lower to middle 90's are likely today. Tonight, lows dip into the upper 60's inland with lower 70's nearer the coast. A few spots on the immediate coast likely won't make it below the middle 70's. Wednesday high temperatures will likely be similar across coastal areas to what they were on Tuesday in the lower 90's. Inland, however, will likely see cooler temperatures behind the aforementioned front with highs generally in the middle to upper 80's. A low risk of rip currents remains through the week. MM/25 SHORT TERM... (Wednesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 428 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 A primarily zonal mid to upper moist flow pattern will prevail across our forecast area through the period as the base of an upper trough over the northeast/mid Atlantic states lifts northeastward. A slow moving surface frontal boundary near the I-65 corridor will slip southward off the coast by midnight and stall over the northern Gulf through Thursday. Deep layer moisture will remain elevated across our forecast area, with PWATs remaining nearly steady between 1.7-2.0 inches. A few showers and storms should linger near the coast Wednesday evening close the southward moving surface boundary before drying out through the overnight hours. The best chance of precipitation on Thursday afternoon will be near the coast at 30%. Will keep a 20% chance across most inland areas, except for dry conditions across our far northwest zones. This convection should dissipate rather quickly by sunset, although a few showers may linger at the coast through the overnight hours. Low temperatures through the period will range from the mid 60s well inland to the low/mid 70s close to the coast. High temps on Thursday will generally range from the mid/upper 80s interior areas to the lower 90s over the southern third of the area. /22 LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 428 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 The zonal flow pattern aloft generally continues over the region through the latter part of the week before another upper trough amplifies over the northern/central Plains on Friday and moves across the Mississippi and Tennessee Valley regions on Saturday. This trough will continue to dig southward over the eastern CONUS on Sunday with the base extending as far south as the central Gulf by late Sunday night. Moisture will remain sufficient along with transient impulses in the W-NW flow aloft to support a slight chance to a chance (20-40% coverage) of showers and thunderstorms Friday and through the weekend. Dry conditions may return on Monday behind the passing trough and associated cold front. High temperatures should continue to range in the mid to upper 80s inland to around 90 degrees along the coast through the extended period. Lows generally range in the 60s over inland areas with lower to mid 70s along the immediate coast and beaches. /22 MARINE... Issued at 428 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 No impacts expected throughout the forecast period other than locally higher winds and seas possible near any storms. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 72 92 70 90 70 91 70 89 / 20 50 20 20 10 30 20 40 Pensacola 75 92 73 90 73 89 73 87 / 20 50 20 30 20 40 20 40 Destin 77 91 75 91 75 89 74 89 / 20 50 20 30 20 40 20 30 Evergreen 68 92 67 90 67 89 65 89 / 20 50 10 20 10 30 10 30 Waynesboro 68 88 67 87 64 89 67 88 / 20 30 10 10 10 20 10 40 Camden 67 87 66 86 66 85 65 84 / 20 40 10 10 10 20 10 30 Crestview 69 94 68 91 68 91 66 89 / 20 50 10 30 10 40 10 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob