401 
FXUS61 KBGM 120627
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
227 AM EDT Tue Sep 12 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
After a foggy start, weak high pressure provides a temporary 
break for most of today. However, a passing front will bring an
additional round of showers and embedded thunder this evening 
into Wednesday. Other than spotty lake-enhanced showers in parts
of Central New York Thursday, our region will finally enter an 
extended dry period, likely lasting through the coming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 
230 AM Update... 
After areas of fog early this morning, main concern will be 
another front passing through tonight to midday Wednesday with 
showers and embedded thunder. Most areas will be fine, but 
locally heavy rainfall cannot ruled out, with some locations 
extra sensitive due to several recent batches of rain.

Weak high pressure is currently drifting over the region, with
lack of clouds aloft allowing radiational cooling which has
promoted fog/low stratus development. It is typical to get fog
in mid September, but its coverage is pretty robust this morning 
considering the wetness of the ground from the bouts of rain 
the last several days. It may take awhile to burn off, but once
it does, a mostly quiet day is in store with highs in the 70s to
near 80. 

An upper level low is currently dropping into around Lake 
Superior, with deep southwesterly flow ahead of it grabbing 
moisture all the way from the western Gulf of Mexico. The low 
will pivot into Ontario-Quebec tonight into Wednesday. This will
send a front slowly through our region, with a ribbon of
elevated Precipitable Water (Pwat) values of around 1.4-1.5
inches. It will go through during an unfavorable time in terms 
of not being able to harness energy from diurnal heating, but 
the showers that do develop will have nearly aligned low level 
jet and cloud layer flow. This could yield a few stripes of 
locally heavy rain. Most locations will be fine, but areas that
have recently experienced flooding will be extra sensitive to 
additional rainfall, particularly if embedded thunder can be 
realized from the little bit of instability aloft as the front 
goes through. Convective potential overall looks quite low, with
parameters unfavorable for strong to severe storms. The main 
issue once again will be if there will be any locally heavy 
rainfall along the slowly-moving front. Generally speaking, 
isolated flooding cannot be ruled out late tonight through 
midday Wednesday for counties along/east of I-81 in Northeast 
PA, and along/south of I-88 in NY. 

Showers will come to an end from west-to-east Wednesday 
afternoon, with post-frontal northwesterly cool air advection 
holding temperatures to mainly the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 
400 PM Update...
While the Wednesday night through Thursday period will be 
mainly dry, some lake enhanced rain showers and clouds will be 
possible across the Finger Lakes Region. Otherwise, skies will 
be gradually clearing. Temperatures will be on the cooler side 
with highs on Thursday only in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 PM Update...
Upper level low is on its way out Thursday night, a high 
pressure system is expected to replace it. Model guidance is 
still working out the timing on this. GFS holds the trough in 
place a bit longer while the EURO is quicker to bring in high 
pressure. Regardless high pressure will be restored to our 
region bringing back quiet and dry conditions. How long this 
will last is debatable, calm weather may be interrupted by 
Hurricane Lee that is expected to make its way up the coast on 
Saturday. Models show Lee tracking more inland at this time but 
the precipitation threat still remains further east over New 
England. Temperatures during this period are mild ranging from 
the mid 60s to low 70s during the day while returning to the 
upper 40s to mid 50s at night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z Update...
Abundant surface moisture from several recent batches of rain, 
along with loss of cloud cover aloft, has yielded a morning of
restrictions from fog and low clouds for most terminals. KITH-
KBGM-KELM-KRME will spend much of the predawn hours around
airport minimums. KSYR will for the most part be spared but 
will still have patchy IFR fog at times. Some uncertainty 
exists also for how long it will take for fog to work its way to
KAVP but it should ultimately do so. Given the early 
development, it may take awhile after 12Z to burn off the 
restrictions. Once that occurs though, a generally quiet VFR day
is anticipated as weak high pressure finishes passing through. 
Our next front will approach this evening, with MVFR ceilings 
and eventual showers starting to move into several of the NY 
terminals prior to 06Z. Winds will be light/variable early, to 
light southwest during the day.

Outlook... 

Late tonight through midday Wednesday...Showers and restrictions 
with a chance of embedded thunder.

Late Wednesday...Improving conditions to mainly VFR as drier air
arrives from the northwest.

Wednesday night through Saturday...Spotty lake-enhanced showers
and associated brief minor restrictions KSYR-KRME Wednesday 
night-Thursday, otherwise VFR as a dry quiet pattern dominates.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...MDP