401 FXUS61 KBGM 120627 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 227 AM EDT Tue Sep 12 2023 .SYNOPSIS... After a foggy start, weak high pressure provides a temporary break for most of today. However, a passing front will bring an additional round of showers and embedded thunder this evening into Wednesday. Other than spotty lake-enhanced showers in parts of Central New York Thursday, our region will finally enter an extended dry period, likely lasting through the coming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 230 AM Update... After areas of fog early this morning, main concern will be another front passing through tonight to midday Wednesday with showers and embedded thunder. Most areas will be fine, but locally heavy rainfall cannot ruled out, with some locations extra sensitive due to several recent batches of rain. Weak high pressure is currently drifting over the region, with lack of clouds aloft allowing radiational cooling which has promoted fog/low stratus development. It is typical to get fog in mid September, but its coverage is pretty robust this morning considering the wetness of the ground from the bouts of rain the last several days. It may take awhile to burn off, but once it does, a mostly quiet day is in store with highs in the 70s to near 80. An upper level low is currently dropping into around Lake Superior, with deep southwesterly flow ahead of it grabbing moisture all the way from the western Gulf of Mexico. The low will pivot into Ontario-Quebec tonight into Wednesday. This will send a front slowly through our region, with a ribbon of elevated Precipitable Water (Pwat) values of around 1.4-1.5 inches. It will go through during an unfavorable time in terms of not being able to harness energy from diurnal heating, but the showers that do develop will have nearly aligned low level jet and cloud layer flow. This could yield a few stripes of locally heavy rain. Most locations will be fine, but areas that have recently experienced flooding will be extra sensitive to additional rainfall, particularly if embedded thunder can be realized from the little bit of instability aloft as the front goes through. Convective potential overall looks quite low, with parameters unfavorable for strong to severe storms. The main issue once again will be if there will be any locally heavy rainfall along the slowly-moving front. Generally speaking, isolated flooding cannot be ruled out late tonight through midday Wednesday for counties along/east of I-81 in Northeast PA, and along/south of I-88 in NY. Showers will come to an end from west-to-east Wednesday afternoon, with post-frontal northwesterly cool air advection holding temperatures to mainly the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 400 PM Update... While the Wednesday night through Thursday period will be mainly dry, some lake enhanced rain showers and clouds will be possible across the Finger Lakes Region. Otherwise, skies will be gradually clearing. Temperatures will be on the cooler side with highs on Thursday only in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 300 PM Update... Upper level low is on its way out Thursday night, a high pressure system is expected to replace it. Model guidance is still working out the timing on this. GFS holds the trough in place a bit longer while the EURO is quicker to bring in high pressure. Regardless high pressure will be restored to our region bringing back quiet and dry conditions. How long this will last is debatable, calm weather may be interrupted by Hurricane Lee that is expected to make its way up the coast on Saturday. Models show Lee tracking more inland at this time but the precipitation threat still remains further east over New England. Temperatures during this period are mild ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s during the day while returning to the upper 40s to mid 50s at night. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 06Z Update... Abundant surface moisture from several recent batches of rain, along with loss of cloud cover aloft, has yielded a morning of restrictions from fog and low clouds for most terminals. KITH- KBGM-KELM-KRME will spend much of the predawn hours around airport minimums. KSYR will for the most part be spared but will still have patchy IFR fog at times. Some uncertainty exists also for how long it will take for fog to work its way to KAVP but it should ultimately do so. Given the early development, it may take awhile after 12Z to burn off the restrictions. Once that occurs though, a generally quiet VFR day is anticipated as weak high pressure finishes passing through. Our next front will approach this evening, with MVFR ceilings and eventual showers starting to move into several of the NY terminals prior to 06Z. Winds will be light/variable early, to light southwest during the day. Outlook... Late tonight through midday Wednesday...Showers and restrictions with a chance of embedded thunder. Late Wednesday...Improving conditions to mainly VFR as drier air arrives from the northwest. Wednesday night through Saturday...Spotty lake-enhanced showers and associated brief minor restrictions KSYR-KRME Wednesday night-Thursday, otherwise VFR as a dry quiet pattern dominates. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...MDP SHORT TERM...BJG LONG TERM...ES AVIATION...MDP