257 
FXUS62 KTAE 060449
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1249 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023

Minor tweaks to the PoP forecast over our Gulf waters to account
for current radar trends. Otherwise, no other updates are
necessary this evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 219 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023

High pressure will be in control leading to tranquil conditions as
the surface high drifts south off the east coast of Florida. A
plume of low level moisture will remain off the panhandle coast
with a few showers or isolated thunderstorms moving though the
offshore waters but inland areas should remain dry. Winds will be
light and variable. Lows will dip down into the upper 60s to lower
70s and highs will rise into the low to mid 90s Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 219 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023

Mid level ridging over the eastern US will get pinched and moved
off to the east while the surface high pressure scoots further
east into the Atlantic. This will allow a weak cold front and
supporting mid level trough to enter the southern US. The front
will align close to our northern CWA border by daybreak Friday 
morning. Southerly flow will get better established enough to 
bring up some gulf moisture to warrant low end rain chances close 
to the front and through the panhandle counties. Leaned towards 
the ECMWF in keeping pops on the lower end and lines up well with 
this morning's NBM run, despite the GFS developing more convection
through our panhandle counties. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 219 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023

The front will remain in the area through the weekend and will
serve as a focus for scattered afternoon and early evening showers
and thunderstorms. Better areas for this convection will be the
southern half of the CWA along and south of the front and in
closer proximity to developing seabreezes each day. North of the
front, dry air quickly settles in with a good debarkation of 
PWATs north and south of the front. Highs each day will be in the 
low to mid 90s; on the lower end of that spectrum where more 
clouds and rain can develop. Overnight lows will fall into the low
to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period but patchy fog
and low ceilings could bring periods of MVFR conditions to VLD/DHN
around sunrise. VFR conditions will prevail after sunrise. 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023

Weak high pressure will prevail through Saturday over the eastern
Gulf. A weak cold front will move towards the Gulf coast this
weekend with an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms. 
Overall, favorable marine conditions are expected heading into the
weekend outside of any thunderstorms over the Gulf waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023

No fire weather concerns over the next few days.

High pressure overhead will bring light winds for the next few
days. A cold front will approach the region Thursday bringing an
increased chance for rain for the end of the work week. Minimum
afternoon relative humidities will fall into the 40% range each
day.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023

Mainly dry weather is expected this week with little to no rain 
chances until late in the week and into the weekend. Rainfall
amounts over the next seven days will average an inch or less. This 
will allow the rivers that are running in action stage across 
portions of the Florida big bend region to gradually recede. 

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always 
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they 
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   94  72  95  73 /  10   0  20  20 
Panama City   91  76  91  77 /  10  10  30  20 
Dothan        93  71  94  71 /   0   0  30  20 
Albany        94  72  95  71 /   0   0  20  20 
Valdosta      91  71  93  71 /   0   0  10  10 
Cross City    94  72  94  73 /   0   0  10  10 
Apalachicola  88  76  89  77 /  10  10  20  20 

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ early this 
     morning for FLZ108-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...DVD