257 FXUS62 KTAE 060449 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1249 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 945 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023 Minor tweaks to the PoP forecast over our Gulf waters to account for current radar trends. Otherwise, no other updates are necessary this evening. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Wednesday) Issued at 219 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023 High pressure will be in control leading to tranquil conditions as the surface high drifts south off the east coast of Florida. A plume of low level moisture will remain off the panhandle coast with a few showers or isolated thunderstorms moving though the offshore waters but inland areas should remain dry. Winds will be light and variable. Lows will dip down into the upper 60s to lower 70s and highs will rise into the low to mid 90s Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 219 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023 Mid level ridging over the eastern US will get pinched and moved off to the east while the surface high pressure scoots further east into the Atlantic. This will allow a weak cold front and supporting mid level trough to enter the southern US. The front will align close to our northern CWA border by daybreak Friday morning. Southerly flow will get better established enough to bring up some gulf moisture to warrant low end rain chances close to the front and through the panhandle counties. Leaned towards the ECMWF in keeping pops on the lower end and lines up well with this morning's NBM run, despite the GFS developing more convection through our panhandle counties. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 219 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023 The front will remain in the area through the weekend and will serve as a focus for scattered afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms. Better areas for this convection will be the southern half of the CWA along and south of the front and in closer proximity to developing seabreezes each day. North of the front, dry air quickly settles in with a good debarkation of PWATs north and south of the front. Highs each day will be in the low to mid 90s; on the lower end of that spectrum where more clouds and rain can develop. Overnight lows will fall into the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period but patchy fog and low ceilings could bring periods of MVFR conditions to VLD/DHN around sunrise. VFR conditions will prevail after sunrise. && .MARINE... Issued at 219 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023 Weak high pressure will prevail through Saturday over the eastern Gulf. A weak cold front will move towards the Gulf coast this weekend with an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms. Overall, favorable marine conditions are expected heading into the weekend outside of any thunderstorms over the Gulf waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 219 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023 No fire weather concerns over the next few days. High pressure overhead will bring light winds for the next few days. A cold front will approach the region Thursday bringing an increased chance for rain for the end of the work week. Minimum afternoon relative humidities will fall into the 40% range each day. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 219 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023 Mainly dry weather is expected this week with little to no rain chances until late in the week and into the weekend. Rainfall amounts over the next seven days will average an inch or less. This will allow the rivers that are running in action stage across portions of the Florida big bend region to gradually recede. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 94 72 95 73 / 10 0 20 20 Panama City 91 76 91 77 / 10 10 30 20 Dothan 93 71 94 71 / 0 0 30 20 Albany 94 72 95 71 / 0 0 20 20 Valdosta 91 71 93 71 / 0 0 10 10 Cross City 94 72 94 73 / 0 0 10 10 Apalachicola 88 76 89 77 / 10 10 20 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ early this morning for FLZ108-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Scholl SHORT TERM...Scholl LONG TERM....Scholl AVIATION...Dobbs MARINE...Scholl FIRE WEATHER...Scholl HYDROLOGY...DVD