451 
FXUS64 KAMA 022339
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
639 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023

Through Sunday, dry upper ridge, very apparent on satellite over W 
TX/KS/MO, will tend to wane as an upper low, currently over the 
ArkLaTex region, churns northwestward and western CONUS trough 
advances eastward. With southwesterly flow aloft slowly returning, 
surface lee troughing looks to be maintained to our west, driving a 
bit of a southerly breeze. That said, mid-level winds remain modest, 
so top end sustained wind potential is probably only around 15 mph. 
Despite this, morning downslope component to the surface winds and 
warm mid-level temperatures should still allow for surface dewpoints 
to fall and temperatures to rise to around 100, resulting in 
humidity values in the 10 to 15 percent range. Thankfully the modest 
winds should keep fire danger at elevated levels or lower despite 
consistently drying fuels. Additionally, those warm mid-level 
temperatures should keep a lid on any stray convection, so have gone 
with a 0 PoP for Sunday. This could change as we move ahead to 
Monday.

Ferguson

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023

An upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest will be approaching 
the Four Corners region Monday morning.  A lee surface low will 
develop Monday afternoon and push winds in the 20 to 25 mph range 
across the central and eastern Panhandles.  At the same time the 
area will be on the back side of the main upper ridge with very warm 
temperatures in play.  Highs will be in the 90s to lower 100s.  With 
a weak disturbance over the Gulf that has been nudging east towards 
the Panhandles there could be just enough mid level moisture in 
conjunction with the hot temperatures to get some virga showers to 
possibly isolated storms, mainly east and southeast.  

Upper trough will pass north of the Panhandles Tuesday with a weak 
cold front that stalls over the central Panhandles, and quickly 
retreat.  Highs will still be in the 90s to lower 100s on Tuesday. 
As the trough continues further east the upper high will begin to 
rebuild and starts off centered over southwest Texas.  Hot and dry 
conditions will continue into the extended as a result of this 
building high.  There is the potential for continued isolated virga 
showers/storms to occur under the hot temperatures. 

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023

For the 00Z TAFs, VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at KGUY,
KDHT, and KAMA through late Sunday afternoon. 

02

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot and dry conditions have persisted for quite some time now, with 
the fuels in the east and southeast becoming the most stressed.  All 
areas are becoming pretty dry, but the southeast approaching the 
90th percentile.  With a lee surface low developing, winds will 
start to be on the breezy side about 20 to 25 mph.  This in 
conjunction with RH values around 15% could start to get RFTI's in 
the solid elevated, to possibly critical.  No watch currently in 
effect, however Monday could be our first critical Fire Weather day 
since spring. 

Weber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                64  99  68  99 /   0   0   0   0 
Beaver OK                  64  99  65 101 /   0   0   0   0 
Boise City OK              61  98  64  98 /   0   0   0   0 
Borger TX                  67 104  70 103 /   0   0   0   0 
Boys Ranch TX              63 102  69 101 /   0   0   0   0 
Canyon TX                  62  99  66  99 /   0   0   0   0 
Clarendon TX               65  98  67  99 /   0   0   0   0 
Dalhart TX                 59  99  64 100 /   0   0   0   0 
Guymon OK                  61 101  64 101 /   0   0   0   0 
Hereford TX                62 100  67  99 /   0   0   0   0 
Lipscomb TX                64 102  65 101 /   0   0   0   0 
Pampa TX                   65  97  67  98 /   0   0   0   0 
Shamrock TX                64 100  64 101 /   0   0   0   0 
Wellington TX              64 101  66 101 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...02