451 FXUS64 KAMA 022339 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 639 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023 Through Sunday, dry upper ridge, very apparent on satellite over W TX/KS/MO, will tend to wane as an upper low, currently over the ArkLaTex region, churns northwestward and western CONUS trough advances eastward. With southwesterly flow aloft slowly returning, surface lee troughing looks to be maintained to our west, driving a bit of a southerly breeze. That said, mid-level winds remain modest, so top end sustained wind potential is probably only around 15 mph. Despite this, morning downslope component to the surface winds and warm mid-level temperatures should still allow for surface dewpoints to fall and temperatures to rise to around 100, resulting in humidity values in the 10 to 15 percent range. Thankfully the modest winds should keep fire danger at elevated levels or lower despite consistently drying fuels. Additionally, those warm mid-level temperatures should keep a lid on any stray convection, so have gone with a 0 PoP for Sunday. This could change as we move ahead to Monday. Ferguson && .LONG TERM ... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023 An upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest will be approaching the Four Corners region Monday morning. A lee surface low will develop Monday afternoon and push winds in the 20 to 25 mph range across the central and eastern Panhandles. At the same time the area will be on the back side of the main upper ridge with very warm temperatures in play. Highs will be in the 90s to lower 100s. With a weak disturbance over the Gulf that has been nudging east towards the Panhandles there could be just enough mid level moisture in conjunction with the hot temperatures to get some virga showers to possibly isolated storms, mainly east and southeast. Upper trough will pass north of the Panhandles Tuesday with a weak cold front that stalls over the central Panhandles, and quickly retreat. Highs will still be in the 90s to lower 100s on Tuesday. As the trough continues further east the upper high will begin to rebuild and starts off centered over southwest Texas. Hot and dry conditions will continue into the extended as a result of this building high. There is the potential for continued isolated virga showers/storms to occur under the hot temperatures. Weber && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2023 For the 00Z TAFs, VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at KGUY, KDHT, and KAMA through late Sunday afternoon. 02 && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot and dry conditions have persisted for quite some time now, with the fuels in the east and southeast becoming the most stressed. All areas are becoming pretty dry, but the southeast approaching the 90th percentile. With a lee surface low developing, winds will start to be on the breezy side about 20 to 25 mph. This in conjunction with RH values around 15% could start to get RFTI's in the solid elevated, to possibly critical. No watch currently in effect, however Monday could be our first critical Fire Weather day since spring. Weber && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 64 99 68 99 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 64 99 65 101 / 0 0 0 0 Boise City OK 61 98 64 98 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 67 104 70 103 / 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 63 102 69 101 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 62 99 66 99 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 65 98 67 99 / 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 59 99 64 100 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 61 101 64 101 / 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 62 100 67 99 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 64 102 65 101 / 0 0 0 0 Pampa TX 65 97 67 98 / 0 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 64 100 64 101 / 0 0 0 0 Wellington TX 64 101 66 101 / 0 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...77 LONG TERM....89 AVIATION...02