940 
FXUS61 KCLE 182257
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
657 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues over the region into Sunday. A cold 
front moves southeast across the area late Sunday into Monday, 
followed by high pressure once again through mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Surface pressure gradient will continue to weaken through the 
evening. Dry air at the surface will also assist, allowing
temperatures to quickly decrease with the setting sun. Locations
inland from the lake will see gusts end quickly at sunset. The previous
forecast covers this well so only some minor changes to sky cover
and temperatures have been made to reflect recent trends.

Previous Discussion...
Gusty northwesterly winds continue across the area this afternoon as 
mixing depths remain deep, evident by surface dew points in the 
lower 50s and even upper 40s in some spots. As surface high pressure 
settles in across the region later tonight into tomorrow, winds will 
become light and variable overnight. Given the low level dry air in 
place, not anticipating much fog, although could see some patchy 
valley fog down south. Low temperatures will be well-below normal in 
the lower 50s to perhaps upper 40s.

Quiet weather will persist for the start of the weekend with high 
pressure in place. Temperatures will be slightly below average, in 
the upper 70s to lower 80s under mostly sunny skies. Some high level 
haze from wildfire smoke may begin to creep in from the west in the 
afternoon/evening hours, but not anticipating much in the way of 
surface visibility restrictions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Relatively quiet short term period as ridging over the central CONUS 
continues to build. Surface ridging will hold across the Ohio Valley 
Sunday before a weak front settles south into the area Monday. 
Amplifying central CONUS ridge with flattening upper level flow over 
the Great Lakes will for persistent northwest flow to setup over the 
area beginning Tuesday night. At this point, forecast remains dry 
through this period with weak forcing precluding any precip 
potential with the weak frontal passage. Highs in the upper 80s/low 
90s Sunday will cool a bit by Monday, with low to upper 80s expected 
for highs.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A more active pattern appears to be shaping up for mid to late next 
week, as a high amplitude central CONUS ridge persists with 
northwest flow persisting over the forecast area. This ring of fire 
pattern may bring convective complexes through the area beginning 
Tuesday night through Friday before the pattern breaks down with the 
passage of a cold front by this weekend. Pinpointing precip chances 
with any confidence is difficult at this point, with slight chance 
pops Tuesday night and again Wednesday night through Friday 
reflected in the forecast. Warming temps expected through the week 
with mid 70s to mid 80s Tuesday rising to the low 80s to mid 90s by 
Thursday. Friday will likely be cooler with the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Gusty west to northwest winds decrease through sunset. As the
winds decrease they shift to the southwest and south but they
will be light through the afternoon. Otherwise VFR conditions
are expected. 

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in low ceilings across portions of NE
OH and NW PA late Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Will allow the Small Craft Advisory to expire from Maumee Bay
the Islands, but have extended the Small Craft Advisory and
Beach Hazards Statement a few more hours from the Islands to
Willowick. Winds will quickly diminish from west to east over
the western half of the lake through 8 PM, with some lingering
low end small craft conditions for the extended zones.
Otherwise, winds/waves will continue to diminish eastward this
evening into the overnight, so no changes to headlines east of
Willowick at this time. 

High pressure builds over the lake late tonight into Saturday
with winds becoming calm then increasing out of the southwest by
late Saturday. Southwest flow persists over the lake through
Sunday night before a weak cold front drops south across the
lake Monday, with winds becoming northerly. Light north to
easterly winds will persist over the lake through midweek, with
no anticipated headlines at this time.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for 
     OHZ009>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for 
     PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for 
     LEZ144>148.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kahn/MM
NEAR TERM...Kahn/MM
SHORT TERM...Greenawalt
LONG TERM...Greenawalt
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...Greenawalt