940 FXUS61 KCLE 182257 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 657 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure continues over the region into Sunday. A cold front moves southeast across the area late Sunday into Monday, followed by high pressure once again through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Surface pressure gradient will continue to weaken through the evening. Dry air at the surface will also assist, allowing temperatures to quickly decrease with the setting sun. Locations inland from the lake will see gusts end quickly at sunset. The previous forecast covers this well so only some minor changes to sky cover and temperatures have been made to reflect recent trends. Previous Discussion... Gusty northwesterly winds continue across the area this afternoon as mixing depths remain deep, evident by surface dew points in the lower 50s and even upper 40s in some spots. As surface high pressure settles in across the region later tonight into tomorrow, winds will become light and variable overnight. Given the low level dry air in place, not anticipating much fog, although could see some patchy valley fog down south. Low temperatures will be well-below normal in the lower 50s to perhaps upper 40s. Quiet weather will persist for the start of the weekend with high pressure in place. Temperatures will be slightly below average, in the upper 70s to lower 80s under mostly sunny skies. Some high level haze from wildfire smoke may begin to creep in from the west in the afternoon/evening hours, but not anticipating much in the way of surface visibility restrictions. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Relatively quiet short term period as ridging over the central CONUS continues to build. Surface ridging will hold across the Ohio Valley Sunday before a weak front settles south into the area Monday. Amplifying central CONUS ridge with flattening upper level flow over the Great Lakes will for persistent northwest flow to setup over the area beginning Tuesday night. At this point, forecast remains dry through this period with weak forcing precluding any precip potential with the weak frontal passage. Highs in the upper 80s/low 90s Sunday will cool a bit by Monday, with low to upper 80s expected for highs. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A more active pattern appears to be shaping up for mid to late next week, as a high amplitude central CONUS ridge persists with northwest flow persisting over the forecast area. This ring of fire pattern may bring convective complexes through the area beginning Tuesday night through Friday before the pattern breaks down with the passage of a cold front by this weekend. Pinpointing precip chances with any confidence is difficult at this point, with slight chance pops Tuesday night and again Wednesday night through Friday reflected in the forecast. Warming temps expected through the week with mid 70s to mid 80s Tuesday rising to the low 80s to mid 90s by Thursday. Friday will likely be cooler with the cold front. && .AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... Gusty west to northwest winds decrease through sunset. As the winds decrease they shift to the southwest and south but they will be light through the afternoon. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in low ceilings across portions of NE OH and NW PA late Sunday night into Monday. && .MARINE... Will allow the Small Craft Advisory to expire from Maumee Bay the Islands, but have extended the Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards Statement a few more hours from the Islands to Willowick. Winds will quickly diminish from west to east over the western half of the lake through 8 PM, with some lingering low end small craft conditions for the extended zones. Otherwise, winds/waves will continue to diminish eastward this evening into the overnight, so no changes to headlines east of Willowick at this time. High pressure builds over the lake late tonight into Saturday with winds becoming calm then increasing out of the southwest by late Saturday. Southwest flow persists over the lake through Sunday night before a weak cold front drops south across the lake Monday, with winds becoming northerly. Light north to easterly winds will persist over the lake through midweek, with no anticipated headlines at this time. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ009>012-089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ144>148. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kahn/MM NEAR TERM...Kahn/MM SHORT TERM...Greenawalt LONG TERM...Greenawalt AVIATION...MM MARINE...Greenawalt