278 
FXUS61 KRLX 220515
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
115 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier and less humid through the weekend. Heat and humidity gradually
builds again next week with a return of unsettled weather in the form
of afternoon and evening shower/thunderstorm chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 800 PM Friday...

A ridge builds across from the west tonight keeping light winds
across the region. Fog is expected to develop overnight as the
stable air mass settles. Dense fog along river valleys may
reduce visibilities to one mile or less during the early
morning. Clearing should occur quickly after sunrise, with 
scattered skies through the afternoon. 

As of 120 PM Friday...

Mainly quiet conditions continue through the near term period in the 
wake of a weak cold front that has dropped dew point values down 
into the lower to mid 60s. A diurnal cumulus/towering cumulus field 
with a few isolated showers dissipates this evening leaving just 
some thin cirrus overhead. A combination of fog and low stratus 
forms overnight heading into Saturday morning. With ground 
temperatures generally well above air temperatures tonight, fog may 
be more limited to the river valleys where a 10 degree delta between 
air and water temperatures should lead to decent moisture flux off 
the water surface.

Another quiet day is expected Saturday once any morning fog/stratus 
burns off with high pressure sitting overhead. May actually see dew 
point values falling below the 60 degree mark Saturday afternoon for 
the first time since July 12th at West Virginia International Yeager 
Airport as highs rise into the lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Friday...

Mainly dry weather will persist into Monday courtesy of surface
high pressure. After a seasonably chilly Saturday night amid
some valley fog, temperatures on Sunday will warm to just shy 
of normal for late July, with mid 80s across the lowlands. A few
isolated showers/storms are possible on Sunday, mainly across 
the higher terrain where orthogonal flow will provide the 'best'
forcing for the day. Any activity quickly diminishes after 
sunset, resulting in another pleasant overnight amid a bit of 
valley fog. Monday will be a few degrees warmer than Sunday, 
along with slightly higher diurnal shower/storm potential. 
Given very weak steering flow, a few isolated water issues 
in/near the mountains may be possible Monday afternoon and 
evening, but confidence is quite low at this point, and have 
kept this out of the HWO for the time being.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...

An upper level ridge across the southwest CONUS will slowly shift
eastward into midweek, allowing for a gradual warming trend 
throughout the work week. Near normal high temperatures on 
Tuesday will transition to ~ 5 degrees above normal by late in 
the work week, with low 90s progged for the lowlands. The period
should feature a good deal of sunshine amid daily diurnal Cu 
fields. Weak, periodic mid/upper level perturbations in WNW flow
aloft will facilitate some isolated diurnal shower/storm 
potential throughout the period. For the time being, have 
capped PoPs at CHC throughout the period, with a slight 
reduction in PoPs from central guidance during the nighttime 
hours to better reflect diurnal trends.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 113 AM Saturday...

Expect areas of IFR/LIFR and local VLIFR fog to develop mainly
after 08Z and lingering through 12-13Z. After 13Z, VFR with
light surface winds.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Development and density of fog/stratus 
tonight may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             SAT 07/22/23
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M    M    L    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M    M    L    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    M    M    M    M    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M    M    L    M    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR is possible in fog each morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/GW
NEAR TERM...KH/JP
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...SL