278 FXUS61 KRLX 220515 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 115 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Drier and less humid through the weekend. Heat and humidity gradually builds again next week with a return of unsettled weather in the form of afternoon and evening shower/thunderstorm chances. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 800 PM Friday... A ridge builds across from the west tonight keeping light winds across the region. Fog is expected to develop overnight as the stable air mass settles. Dense fog along river valleys may reduce visibilities to one mile or less during the early morning. Clearing should occur quickly after sunrise, with scattered skies through the afternoon. As of 120 PM Friday... Mainly quiet conditions continue through the near term period in the wake of a weak cold front that has dropped dew point values down into the lower to mid 60s. A diurnal cumulus/towering cumulus field with a few isolated showers dissipates this evening leaving just some thin cirrus overhead. A combination of fog and low stratus forms overnight heading into Saturday morning. With ground temperatures generally well above air temperatures tonight, fog may be more limited to the river valleys where a 10 degree delta between air and water temperatures should lead to decent moisture flux off the water surface. Another quiet day is expected Saturday once any morning fog/stratus burns off with high pressure sitting overhead. May actually see dew point values falling below the 60 degree mark Saturday afternoon for the first time since July 12th at West Virginia International Yeager Airport as highs rise into the lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Friday... Mainly dry weather will persist into Monday courtesy of surface high pressure. After a seasonably chilly Saturday night amid some valley fog, temperatures on Sunday will warm to just shy of normal for late July, with mid 80s across the lowlands. A few isolated showers/storms are possible on Sunday, mainly across the higher terrain where orthogonal flow will provide the 'best' forcing for the day. Any activity quickly diminishes after sunset, resulting in another pleasant overnight amid a bit of valley fog. Monday will be a few degrees warmer than Sunday, along with slightly higher diurnal shower/storm potential. Given very weak steering flow, a few isolated water issues in/near the mountains may be possible Monday afternoon and evening, but confidence is quite low at this point, and have kept this out of the HWO for the time being. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday... An upper level ridge across the southwest CONUS will slowly shift eastward into midweek, allowing for a gradual warming trend throughout the work week. Near normal high temperatures on Tuesday will transition to ~ 5 degrees above normal by late in the work week, with low 90s progged for the lowlands. The period should feature a good deal of sunshine amid daily diurnal Cu fields. Weak, periodic mid/upper level perturbations in WNW flow aloft will facilitate some isolated diurnal shower/storm potential throughout the period. For the time being, have capped PoPs at CHC throughout the period, with a slight reduction in PoPs from central guidance during the nighttime hours to better reflect diurnal trends. && .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 113 AM Saturday... Expect areas of IFR/LIFR and local VLIFR fog to develop mainly after 08Z and lingering through 12-13Z. After 13Z, VFR with light surface winds. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Development and density of fog/stratus tonight may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 07/22/23 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H L L L M M M M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L M M L H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M L L M M L H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H L L M M M M L H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L M M M M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M L L M M L M H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR is possible in fog each morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/GW NEAR TERM...KH/JP SHORT TERM...GW LONG TERM...GW AVIATION...SL