671 
FXUS64 KTSA 110535
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1235 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 1004 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

At mid evening attention was toward the ongoing convection
streaming southeast into/across Northwest Kansas. Latest Satellite
imagery showed cloud tops continuing to cool...while cloud tops
were slowly warming with the precip across the Oklahoma Texas 
Panhandles. Thus...current thinking is the Northwest Kansas
convection will become the MCS that spreads southeast into the CWA
late tonight/Tuesday morning. Ahead of this convection a northwest
to southeast oriented instability axis was located from the 
convection into Southeast Oklahoma...with surface dewpoints in 
the mid 60s to mid 70s over the CWA.

Overnight tonight...the instability axis is expected to shift
eastward slightly into the region and become mainly elevated. In
response...the MCS should continue push southeast and reach
Eastern Oklahoma in the 06z-09z timeframe. At this time the
greater storm potential continues to be forecast generally along
and west of a line from Bartlesville to Hugo through 12z Tuesday. 
Gusty to locally strong winds look to be the main threat with the 
stronger storms. Also...with precipitable water values in excess 
of 1.5 inches...locally heavy rainfall is possible. 

With the increasing cloud cover overnight...temps are expected to
be warmer than last night with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s
for most locations. For the evening update...have added slight
adjustments to PoPs based on the timing of the MCS and also
tweaked low temps up a bit with the cloud cover. The rest of the
forecast looks to be handling well at this time. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Lingering showers and storms are expected to be ongoing 
Tuesday morning across the area with activity tapering 
off towards the afternoon. Temperatures on Tuesday will 
be highly dependent on the extent of the morning convection. 
The current forecast for Tuesday would put a few locations 
above the heat advisory criteria Tuesday afternoon. However, 
confidence is not high enough at this time to issue a 
heat advisory. 

The heat and humidity will become the main story Wednesday into
Friday as the upper level ridge over the southwest US nudges 
to the east. With high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s 
across a good portion of the area and surface dew points generally 
in the 70s, heat index values of 100 to 115 degrees will be 
common. Heat headlines are likely during this time.   

Shower and storm chances resume Wednesday into Friday across 
northeast oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as activity that 
develops near a frontal boundary across Kansas will have 
the potential to move into the area. 

There will be more widespread chances of showers and storms 
over the weekend and into early next week as the upper level 
ridge retrogrades back to the west and the northwesterly 
flow aloft resumes across the area. The northwesterly flow aloft 
will aid in pushing a front into the area as well. Temperatures 
over the weekend are expected to be at or below seasonal normals.  

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible overnight
into Tuesday morning, with KMLC, KRVS, and KTUL most likely to be
impacted. VFR conditions will prevail outside of any
thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  76  98  79 /  40  10   0  20 
FSM   93  75  99  79 /  50  10  10  10 
MLC   91  76  97  79 /  50   0   0  10 
BVO   92  72  98  74 /  40  10  10  30 
FYV   91  72  97  75 /  20  10  10  20 
BYV   93  72  98  75 /  20  10  20  30 
MKO   90  74  95  78 /  40   0   0  10 
MIO   93  74  98  74 /  20  10  10  30 
F10   89  75  95  78 /  40   0   0  10 
HHW   89  74  94  77 /  60   0   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05