671 FXUS64 KTSA 110535 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1235 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 1004 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023 At mid evening attention was toward the ongoing convection streaming southeast into/across Northwest Kansas. Latest Satellite imagery showed cloud tops continuing to cool...while cloud tops were slowly warming with the precip across the Oklahoma Texas Panhandles. Thus...current thinking is the Northwest Kansas convection will become the MCS that spreads southeast into the CWA late tonight/Tuesday morning. Ahead of this convection a northwest to southeast oriented instability axis was located from the convection into Southeast Oklahoma...with surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to mid 70s over the CWA. Overnight tonight...the instability axis is expected to shift eastward slightly into the region and become mainly elevated. In response...the MCS should continue push southeast and reach Eastern Oklahoma in the 06z-09z timeframe. At this time the greater storm potential continues to be forecast generally along and west of a line from Bartlesville to Hugo through 12z Tuesday. Gusty to locally strong winds look to be the main threat with the stronger storms. Also...with precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches...locally heavy rainfall is possible. With the increasing cloud cover overnight...temps are expected to be warmer than last night with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s for most locations. For the evening update...have added slight adjustments to PoPs based on the timing of the MCS and also tweaked low temps up a bit with the cloud cover. The rest of the forecast looks to be handling well at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Monday) Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023 Lingering showers and storms are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning across the area with activity tapering off towards the afternoon. Temperatures on Tuesday will be highly dependent on the extent of the morning convection. The current forecast for Tuesday would put a few locations above the heat advisory criteria Tuesday afternoon. However, confidence is not high enough at this time to issue a heat advisory. The heat and humidity will become the main story Wednesday into Friday as the upper level ridge over the southwest US nudges to the east. With high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s across a good portion of the area and surface dew points generally in the 70s, heat index values of 100 to 115 degrees will be common. Heat headlines are likely during this time. Shower and storm chances resume Wednesday into Friday across northeast oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as activity that develops near a frontal boundary across Kansas will have the potential to move into the area. There will be more widespread chances of showers and storms over the weekend and into early next week as the upper level ridge retrogrades back to the west and the northwesterly flow aloft resumes across the area. The northwesterly flow aloft will aid in pushing a front into the area as well. Temperatures over the weekend are expected to be at or below seasonal normals. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible overnight into Tuesday morning, with KMLC, KRVS, and KTUL most likely to be impacted. VFR conditions will prevail outside of any thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 92 76 98 79 / 40 10 0 20 FSM 93 75 99 79 / 50 10 10 10 MLC 91 76 97 79 / 50 0 0 10 BVO 92 72 98 74 / 40 10 10 30 FYV 91 72 97 75 / 20 10 10 20 BYV 93 72 98 75 / 20 10 20 30 MKO 90 74 95 78 / 40 0 0 10 MIO 93 74 98 74 / 20 10 10 30 F10 89 75 95 78 / 40 0 0 10 HHW 89 74 94 77 / 60 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...05