871 
FXUS64 KMOB 302330
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
630 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

VFR conditions continue to prevail through Saturday. Winds out of
the south this evening relax overnight before becoming
southwesterly to westerly Saturday morning at around 5 to 10kts.
An isolated shower or thunderstorms is once again possible over
interior portions of southwestern and south-central AL for
Saturday afternoon into evening. MM/25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023/ 

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

More of the same as the heat remains. An upper high pressure area 
centered over the lower Mississippi River region will persist, with 
the northern portion becoming somewhat flattened on Saturday as an 
upper trough begins to exit the northern and central Great Plains. 
Meanwhile, surface high pressure will continue to dominate the 
northeastern Gulf region. As a result, light south to southwest flow 
will occur through Saturday as our area remains on the northwestern 
periphery of this feature. This will help to gradually increase 
boundary layer moisture with dewpoints rising slightly higher 
compared to today.

Will maintain the current Excessive Heat Warning across southeast 
Mississippi and the Heat Advisory for all remaining areas (except 
the coastal sections until 8pm this evening. For Saturday, have 
opted to expand the Excessive Heat Warning eastward to include all 
areas west of the Alabama River with heat index readings as high as 
113 degrees, along with a Heat Advisory for all remaining areas, to 
now include the coastal sections, for heat index readings as high as 
111 degrees. The warning and advisory will be in effect from 10am 
until 8pm. Ambient temperatures inland will top out around the 
century mark, and around 95 degrees along the coast. 

Regarding precipitation, the current MCS moving southward along the 
east central Alabama/west central Georgia border is expected to 
fizzle as it brushes the eastern edge of our CWA. So, expecting 
mainly dry conditions tonight into early Saturday afternoon, 
followed by isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms mid 
afternoon into the evening hours as convection developing to our 
north drops southward.

By mid Saturday afternoon, MLCAPE values could be as high as 2500-
3500 J/KG north of I-10 due to surface heating, with PWATs do to 
increase to around 1.8-2.0 inches. 0-6 km bulk shear values remain 
very low at than 20 knots. However, the environment may be just 
unstable enough for a few potentially strong thunderstorms from late 
afternoon into the evening. Lastly, a low risk of rip currents is 
expected through the period. /22

SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

A strong upper level shortwave trough moves east over the central
eastern Conus Saturday night into Sunday night, flattening the 
upper high centered over the Lower Mississippi River in the Near 
Term, along with shifting it southeast to over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico/Florida. A continued stream of shortwave energy Monday 
through Monday night also digs a mean upper trough over the 
Southern Plains, with the upper high over the eastern Gulf 
building over the Florida peninsula. A surface ridge stretching 
west over the Gulf becomes better organized, organizing the south 
to southwesterly low level flow over and near the forecast area. 
High moisture levels are maintained over the forecast area into 
Sunday night (with precipitable h20 levels in the 1.8"-2.1" 
range), but a band of drier air (with precipitable h20 levels 
around 1.5") moves from over the northern Gulf inland over the 
forecast area late Monday night through Monday. 

Rain chances see an uptick in the Short Term with the 
weakening/shifting upper ridge, first with the weakening upper ridge 
Sunday. Even with the drier airmass moving inland over the forecast 
area Monday and the upper ridge building over Florida, the northern 
half of the Southeast maintains enough moisture and weak upper 
subsidence for afternoon thunderstorms to form. For the forecast 
area, both days see higher PoPs over the northern half of the 
forecast area. As with any summertime thunderstorms, pulse type 
storms, with strong to marginally severe winds and small hail will 
be possible with the stronger storms. With best instability being 
well inland (along and north of Highway 84), best chance remains 
over the northern half of the forecast area.

Looking at temperatures, the weakening upper ridge will bring a drop 
in high temperatures through the Short Term, from the mid 90s to 
near 100 Sunday, to low to mid 90s Monday. Low remain around to a 
bit above seasonal norms, ranging from the low to mid 70s inland, 
mid to upper 70s south of the I-10 corridor to the coast. Combined 
with the decrease in moisture levels, heat indices will see a bit of 
a drop, topping out in the 102-110 degree range Sunday (and a Heat 
Advisory likely) to 101-107 Monday.
/16

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

Guidance is advertising the upper trough over the Plains shifting
east at varying rates (with the ECMWF being faster). 2 out of 3 
ensembles agree with the ECMWF's faster shift, so have leaned that
way for the forecast. High moisture levels rebound by mid week, 
and with the upper trough over the Southeast, a wet pattern 
returns to the forecast area, with temperatures dropping to near 
or a bit below seasonal norms. 
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

No impacts expected as a light to occasional moderate 
southwesterly to westerly flow persists through the middle of 
next week. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  98  76  96  75  94  75  94 /   0  20  20  30  10  30  20  50 
Pensacola   78  96  78  94  77  92  76  93 /   0  10  20  20  10  20  10  40 
Destin      80  95  80  93  80  93  79  94 /   0  10  10  20  10  20  10  30 
Evergreen   73 100  73  97  72  97  72  95 /   0  30  20  40  20  40  20  40 
Waynesboro  74  99  74  96  73  95  73  94 /  10  30  20  40  20  40  20  50 
Camden      73  98  72  95  72  94  72  93 /  10  30  20  40  20  40  30  40 
Crestview   73 100  73  99  72  97  72  97 /   0  30  20  30  10  30  20  40 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>264.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for 
     ALZ051>053-261-263.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ALZ054>060-262-
     264>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201-203-205.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for 
     MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-
     075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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