871 FXUS64 KMOB 302330 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 630 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 VFR conditions continue to prevail through Saturday. Winds out of the south this evening relax overnight before becoming southwesterly to westerly Saturday morning at around 5 to 10kts. An isolated shower or thunderstorms is once again possible over interior portions of southwestern and south-central AL for Saturday afternoon into evening. MM/25 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023/ ..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Saturday) Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 More of the same as the heat remains. An upper high pressure area centered over the lower Mississippi River region will persist, with the northern portion becoming somewhat flattened on Saturday as an upper trough begins to exit the northern and central Great Plains. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will continue to dominate the northeastern Gulf region. As a result, light south to southwest flow will occur through Saturday as our area remains on the northwestern periphery of this feature. This will help to gradually increase boundary layer moisture with dewpoints rising slightly higher compared to today. Will maintain the current Excessive Heat Warning across southeast Mississippi and the Heat Advisory for all remaining areas (except the coastal sections until 8pm this evening. For Saturday, have opted to expand the Excessive Heat Warning eastward to include all areas west of the Alabama River with heat index readings as high as 113 degrees, along with a Heat Advisory for all remaining areas, to now include the coastal sections, for heat index readings as high as 111 degrees. The warning and advisory will be in effect from 10am until 8pm. Ambient temperatures inland will top out around the century mark, and around 95 degrees along the coast. Regarding precipitation, the current MCS moving southward along the east central Alabama/west central Georgia border is expected to fizzle as it brushes the eastern edge of our CWA. So, expecting mainly dry conditions tonight into early Saturday afternoon, followed by isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms mid afternoon into the evening hours as convection developing to our north drops southward. By mid Saturday afternoon, MLCAPE values could be as high as 2500- 3500 J/KG north of I-10 due to surface heating, with PWATs do to increase to around 1.8-2.0 inches. 0-6 km bulk shear values remain very low at than 20 knots. However, the environment may be just unstable enough for a few potentially strong thunderstorms from late afternoon into the evening. Lastly, a low risk of rip currents is expected through the period. /22 SHORT TERM... (Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 A strong upper level shortwave trough moves east over the central eastern Conus Saturday night into Sunday night, flattening the upper high centered over the Lower Mississippi River in the Near Term, along with shifting it southeast to over the eastern Gulf of Mexico/Florida. A continued stream of shortwave energy Monday through Monday night also digs a mean upper trough over the Southern Plains, with the upper high over the eastern Gulf building over the Florida peninsula. A surface ridge stretching west over the Gulf becomes better organized, organizing the south to southwesterly low level flow over and near the forecast area. High moisture levels are maintained over the forecast area into Sunday night (with precipitable h20 levels in the 1.8"-2.1" range), but a band of drier air (with precipitable h20 levels around 1.5") moves from over the northern Gulf inland over the forecast area late Monday night through Monday. Rain chances see an uptick in the Short Term with the weakening/shifting upper ridge, first with the weakening upper ridge Sunday. Even with the drier airmass moving inland over the forecast area Monday and the upper ridge building over Florida, the northern half of the Southeast maintains enough moisture and weak upper subsidence for afternoon thunderstorms to form. For the forecast area, both days see higher PoPs over the northern half of the forecast area. As with any summertime thunderstorms, pulse type storms, with strong to marginally severe winds and small hail will be possible with the stronger storms. With best instability being well inland (along and north of Highway 84), best chance remains over the northern half of the forecast area. Looking at temperatures, the weakening upper ridge will bring a drop in high temperatures through the Short Term, from the mid 90s to near 100 Sunday, to low to mid 90s Monday. Low remain around to a bit above seasonal norms, ranging from the low to mid 70s inland, mid to upper 70s south of the I-10 corridor to the coast. Combined with the decrease in moisture levels, heat indices will see a bit of a drop, topping out in the 102-110 degree range Sunday (and a Heat Advisory likely) to 101-107 Monday. /16 LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 Guidance is advertising the upper trough over the Plains shifting east at varying rates (with the ECMWF being faster). 2 out of 3 ensembles agree with the ECMWF's faster shift, so have leaned that way for the forecast. High moisture levels rebound by mid week, and with the upper trough over the Southeast, a wet pattern returns to the forecast area, with temperatures dropping to near or a bit below seasonal norms. /16 MARINE... Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 No impacts expected as a light to occasional moderate southwesterly to westerly flow persists through the middle of next week. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 76 98 76 96 75 94 75 94 / 0 20 20 30 10 30 20 50 Pensacola 78 96 78 94 77 92 76 93 / 0 10 20 20 10 20 10 40 Destin 80 95 80 93 80 93 79 94 / 0 10 10 20 10 20 10 30 Evergreen 73 100 73 97 72 97 72 95 / 0 30 20 40 20 40 20 40 Waynesboro 74 99 74 96 73 95 73 94 / 10 30 20 40 20 40 20 50 Camden 73 98 72 95 72 94 72 93 / 10 30 20 40 20 40 30 40 Crestview 73 100 73 99 72 97 72 97 / 0 30 20 30 10 30 20 40 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>264. Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ALZ051>053-261-263. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ALZ054>060-262- 264>266. FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201-203-205. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for FLZ201>206. MS...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067- 075-076-078-079. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob