942 
FXUS64 KMOB 180509
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1208 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

Mainly VFR conditions expected overnight. More showers and
thunderstorms are expected to approach the area from the west 
Sunday morning with reduced ceilings and visbys expected. /13

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023/ 

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

The ongoing severe thunderstorms across the southern portions of the 
area, with hail up to baseball size and damaging winds, will 
continue to move south toward and off the coast through late 
afternoon/early evening. A lull in convection looks to be short-
lived however in the wake of this shortwave as yet another fairly 
potent shortwave trough looks to cross the Lower MS Valley late 
tonight, potentially bringing another MCS with it across the state 
of MS. Will need to watch our CWA for the potential arrival of this 
MCS into the far northwest portion of our forecast area very late 
tonight or early Sunday morning. Even so, a very unstable airmass 
will remain in place over our forecast area Sunday afternoon and 
evening, with additional transient impulses bringing the potential 
for organized intense convection to spread across our forecast area 
Sunday afternoon and evening given strong instability and favorable 
deep layer shear. The potential exists for bowing segments capable 
of producing damaging winds in excess of 70 mph to spread across our 
area along with instances of large hail up to baseball size. The SPC 
Day 2 outlook brings an Enhanced Risk of severe weather into our 
southeast MS and southwest AL counties on Sunday, where shear and 
instability overlap will be most favorable for severe weather. 

Flooding concerns will also continue across our forecast area 
through the weekend. Many locations remain saturated from heavy 
rains over the past several days. Additional rounds of storms will 
remain capable of producing torrential downpours with potential for 
2-4" of rain with locally higher totals to fall in a short period of 
time. Given that some of the high resolution CAMs show potential for 
excessive rainfall across portions of our CWA, a Flood Watch remains 
in effect for our entire forecast area through the weekend. High 
dewpoints will result in increased heat indices outside of storms, 
with maximum values up to around 105 degrees in the vicinity of 
southeast MS and far southwest AL on Sunday. A HIGH risk of rip 
currents will continue along area beaches through early next week. 
/22

SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

An upper low that has organized over Kentucky meanders south to 
over the Southeast by Wednesday morning. With an upper high 
located over the Tx/Mexico border, strong northwest to northerly 
upper level flow continues over the Lower Mississippi River Valley
and western half of the Southeast. A surface ridge stretching 
west over the central/southern Gulf of Mexico will continue to 
push Gulf moisture inland, with precipitable h20 values in the 
1.7"-2.1" through the Short Term. Daily showers and thunderstorms 
moving southeast across the forecast area will help to maintain a 
surface boundary stretching southeast across the forecast area, 
providing the focus for the next day's convection initiation. This
boundary will shift southwest through the Short Term as the upper
low approaches. Guidance is advertising MLCapes rising into the 
3000-4000J/kg range each day, more than enough for severe storms. 
Wind shear does see a bit of a downward trend in the Short Term, 
with Bulk Shear in the 30-40kts. Guidance is advertising the 
higher mid level lapse rates present over the forecast area the 
last couple of days shifting southwest, with the highest values, 
and best chance of hail, being over the southwestern quarter of 
the forecast area and southwest. DCapes in the 900- 1200J/kg 
accompany the higher instability levels. Overall, daily strong to 
damaging winds remain possible into the coming week, with 
marginally large hail, remain possible. Water issues are also a
possiblity, with training cells, especially along the stalled
surface boundary.

Low temperatures see a downward trend as the stalled surface 
boundary shifts southwest. Low temperatures in the low to mid 60s 
Sunday night drop into the upper 60s northeast of a Waynesboro to 
Crestview line, around 70 to low 70s south Tuesday night. High 
temperatures also see a downward trend, from the upper 80s to around 
95 Monday to mid 80s to low 90s Tuesday. Heat Indices see a drop 
with the high temperatures, from around 100-107 over the 
southwestern half of the forecast area, to around 100 over the same 
area. The northeastern half of the forecast area sees Heat Indices 
topping out in the 90s.
/16

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

Guidance is advertising the upper low over the eastern Southeast 
meandering around before either moving west (GFS and GEFS) or 
meandering east(ECMWF or ECMWF ensembles). All are advertising the
upper low opening through the Extended, but still bringing above 
normal PoPs. The decrease in upper subsidence over the area and 
better than seasonal chance of rain will keep daytime temperatures
around to below seasonal norms through the period. 
/16 

MARINE...
Issued at 402 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

A light to moderate westerly to southwesterly flow will 
persist into the middle to next week, and cautionary headlines may 
be required at times. Additionally, expect locally higher winds and 
seas in and around any convective development over the local waters. 
/22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      71  90  76  91  72  90  72  89 /  40  60  30  80  50  70  50  60 
Pensacola   73  87  77  88  76  89  74  87 /  50  60  30  80  70  80  60  70 
Destin      75  88  78  88  77  87  75  86 /  50  50  40  70  70  70  70  70 
Evergreen   68  91  71  88  70  88  68  84 /  20  50  50  90  50  70  50  70 
Waynesboro  68  89  71  90  69  90  69  86 /  20  60  60  80  40  50  30  50 
Camden      66  89  70  86  68  86  67  83 /  10  40  60  80  40  60  40  60 
Crestview   67  92  72  90  71  90  68  87 /  30  50  30  90  60  80  50  80 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flood Watch through Monday morning for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch through Monday morning for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Flood Watch through Monday morning for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob