942 FXUS64 KMOB 180509 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1208 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023 Mainly VFR conditions expected overnight. More showers and thunderstorms are expected to approach the area from the west Sunday morning with reduced ceilings and visbys expected. /13 && PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023/ .New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Sunday) Issued at 402 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 The ongoing severe thunderstorms across the southern portions of the area, with hail up to baseball size and damaging winds, will continue to move south toward and off the coast through late afternoon/early evening. A lull in convection looks to be short- lived however in the wake of this shortwave as yet another fairly potent shortwave trough looks to cross the Lower MS Valley late tonight, potentially bringing another MCS with it across the state of MS. Will need to watch our CWA for the potential arrival of this MCS into the far northwest portion of our forecast area very late tonight or early Sunday morning. Even so, a very unstable airmass will remain in place over our forecast area Sunday afternoon and evening, with additional transient impulses bringing the potential for organized intense convection to spread across our forecast area Sunday afternoon and evening given strong instability and favorable deep layer shear. The potential exists for bowing segments capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 70 mph to spread across our area along with instances of large hail up to baseball size. The SPC Day 2 outlook brings an Enhanced Risk of severe weather into our southeast MS and southwest AL counties on Sunday, where shear and instability overlap will be most favorable for severe weather. Flooding concerns will also continue across our forecast area through the weekend. Many locations remain saturated from heavy rains over the past several days. Additional rounds of storms will remain capable of producing torrential downpours with potential for 2-4" of rain with locally higher totals to fall in a short period of time. Given that some of the high resolution CAMs show potential for excessive rainfall across portions of our CWA, a Flood Watch remains in effect for our entire forecast area through the weekend. High dewpoints will result in increased heat indices outside of storms, with maximum values up to around 105 degrees in the vicinity of southeast MS and far southwest AL on Sunday. A HIGH risk of rip currents will continue along area beaches through early next week. /22 SHORT TERM... (Sunday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 402 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 An upper low that has organized over Kentucky meanders south to over the Southeast by Wednesday morning. With an upper high located over the Tx/Mexico border, strong northwest to northerly upper level flow continues over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and western half of the Southeast. A surface ridge stretching west over the central/southern Gulf of Mexico will continue to push Gulf moisture inland, with precipitable h20 values in the 1.7"-2.1" through the Short Term. Daily showers and thunderstorms moving southeast across the forecast area will help to maintain a surface boundary stretching southeast across the forecast area, providing the focus for the next day's convection initiation. This boundary will shift southwest through the Short Term as the upper low approaches. Guidance is advertising MLCapes rising into the 3000-4000J/kg range each day, more than enough for severe storms. Wind shear does see a bit of a downward trend in the Short Term, with Bulk Shear in the 30-40kts. Guidance is advertising the higher mid level lapse rates present over the forecast area the last couple of days shifting southwest, with the highest values, and best chance of hail, being over the southwestern quarter of the forecast area and southwest. DCapes in the 900- 1200J/kg accompany the higher instability levels. Overall, daily strong to damaging winds remain possible into the coming week, with marginally large hail, remain possible. Water issues are also a possiblity, with training cells, especially along the stalled surface boundary. Low temperatures see a downward trend as the stalled surface boundary shifts southwest. Low temperatures in the low to mid 60s Sunday night drop into the upper 60s northeast of a Waynesboro to Crestview line, around 70 to low 70s south Tuesday night. High temperatures also see a downward trend, from the upper 80s to around 95 Monday to mid 80s to low 90s Tuesday. Heat Indices see a drop with the high temperatures, from around 100-107 over the southwestern half of the forecast area, to around 100 over the same area. The northeastern half of the forecast area sees Heat Indices topping out in the 90s. /16 LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 402 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 Guidance is advertising the upper low over the eastern Southeast meandering around before either moving west (GFS and GEFS) or meandering east(ECMWF or ECMWF ensembles). All are advertising the upper low opening through the Extended, but still bringing above normal PoPs. The decrease in upper subsidence over the area and better than seasonal chance of rain will keep daytime temperatures around to below seasonal norms through the period. /16 MARINE... Issued at 402 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 A light to moderate westerly to southwesterly flow will persist into the middle to next week, and cautionary headlines may be required at times. Additionally, expect locally higher winds and seas in and around any convective development over the local waters. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 71 90 76 91 72 90 72 89 / 40 60 30 80 50 70 50 60 Pensacola 73 87 77 88 76 89 74 87 / 50 60 30 80 70 80 60 70 Destin 75 88 78 88 77 87 75 86 / 50 50 40 70 70 70 70 70 Evergreen 68 91 71 88 70 88 68 84 / 20 50 50 90 50 70 50 70 Waynesboro 68 89 71 90 69 90 69 86 / 20 60 60 80 40 50 30 50 Camden 66 89 70 86 68 86 67 83 / 10 40 60 80 40 60 40 60 Crestview 67 92 72 90 71 90 68 87 / 30 50 30 90 60 80 50 80 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Flood Watch through Monday morning for ALZ051>060-261>266. High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for ALZ265-266. FL...Flood Watch through Monday morning for FLZ201>206. High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ202-204-206. MS...Flood Watch through Monday morning for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob