974 
FXUS64 KMOB 232336
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
636 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Anticipating 
winds to increase slightly to around 10 knots and shift to be 
northerly this evening. This will persist through Monday morning, 
with winds turning to be more northeasterly by mid-morning. Wind 
gusts to around 20 knots or so are expected near the coast tonight
through Monday morning as well. Anticipating decreasing winds and
clouds scattering out through the afternoon on Monday. /26

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023/ 

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023

The forecast remains on track this afternoon with a weak, 
secondary cold front currently draped across interior southeast 
Mississippi and southwest Alabama. This front will continue to 
push southward towards the coast through the afternoon and evening
hours. In the meantime, a weak shortwave, moving within a zonal 
flow aloft, will slide overhead this evening. This feature aloft 
combined with PWATs near 0.6-1.0 inches could support a few light 
rain showers over interior portions of southeast Mississippi and 
southwest Alabama this afternoon and evening. Although, am not 
expecting much in terms of accumulation given the weak forcing 
with a subsident layer near the surface. Dry conditions will 
otherwise persist through the period as high pressure builds in 
from the middle Mississippi Valley. Increasing north to 
northeasterly winds behind the front will also bring reinforcing 
cooler air into the region. Low temperatures tonight are expected 
to range from the upper 40s well inland to the lower and middle 
50s over central and southern portions of the area. Highs on 
Monday will be a bit cooler with values topping out in the upper 
60s in our northwestern zones and the middle 70s over far 
southeastern zones. /14

SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023

Zonal flow aloft will prevail through midweek across the region.
The next significant shortwave to approach from the west is
forecast to be late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Guidance has
trended less amplified with this wave as it gets sheared out in
the fast westerly flow. At the surface, a stationary front just
offshore will likely try to slowly move inland by early Wednesday
in advance of the shortwave. This will increase surface moisture
and result in some modest instability moving into land areas.
Therefore, even though the shortwave is now forecast to be weaker,
there will likely still a sufficient combination of atmospheric
lift, moisture, and instability to result in scattered to numerous
showers and a few thunderstorms. Most of this will likely occur
during the day Wednesday with rain chances diminishing Wednesday
night in the wake of the shortwave. Severe chances look low at
this point given the best deep layer bulk shear (near 40 kt) is
forecast to diminish as the best instability moves in. Another 
more significant shortwave will be quickly on the heels of the 
first one, but it will likely remain far enough west of the area 
to have little impact Wednesday night. More details about this 
feature can be found in the long term section below. Temperatures
will be fairly seasonable through this period. 34/JFB

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023

The aforementioned next shortwave to quickly approach in the
westerly flow will move into the area during the day Thursday,
pushing a cold front toward the region. A weak surface low
developing along the front will help to entrench a deeper warm
sector into the region during the day Thursday. Therefore,
numerous showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly 
likely through the day and perhaps into Thursday evening. Guidance
has continued to vary on the timing of this feature with the 12z 
ECMWF showing a slower solution and delaying more of the precip 
until Thursday night. The current forecast shows the highest rain
chances during the day Thursday with a solid chance persisting 
into Thursday evening to reflect some of the timing uncertainty. 
Cannot rule out a couple of strong storms with this system given 
sufficient instability and deep layer bulk shear potentially 
strengthening to 40-50kt. However, sfc-850mb flow currently looks
fairly weak and that would tend to mitigate the severe threat. 
This is something to monitor as we go through the week. 

Drier conditions are expected for Friday and Saturday. However,
uncertainty increases once again as we go into Saturday
night/Sunday. The 12z guidance suite has trended toward an even
more amplified trough that could approach the area in this time
frame. There has been little consistency with this given it is so
far out. Decided to include a slight chance or rain Saturday night
into Sunday, but this may certainly need to be increased in later
forecasts if this trend holds. 34/JFB

MARINE...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023

Light to moderate easterly flow continues through early this 
evening. A moderate to strong offshore flow will develop tonight 
as a cold front passes over the marine zones. A Small Craft 
Advisory remains in effect for the Mississippi Sound, Southern 
Mobile Bay, and offshore zones from late tonight through early 
Monday afternoon. It is possible that Northern Mobile Bay may also
need to be added to the advisory. Winds decrease through Monday 
night with a light to moderate easterly wind is anticipated by 
Tuesday. An onshore flow returning by midweek. /14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      54  72  53  80  61  79  64  80 /  10  10   0  10  40  60  10  60 
Pensacola   58  75  60  78  65  77  66  78 /  10  10   0  10  30  60  20  50 
Destin      60  76  61  78  66  78  67  78 /  10  10   0  10  30  60  30  50 
Evergreen   50  72  49  80  56  80  59  81 /  20  10   0  10  30  60  10  60 
Waynesboro  48  69  49  77  55  78  59  78 /  20  10   0  10  30  60  10  60 
Camden      49  70  47  78  55  78  58  78 /  20   0   0  10  30  60  10  60 
Crestview   53  77  53  83  59  82  62  83 /  10  10   0  10  30  60  20  60 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ631-632-
     650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

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