974 FXUS64 KMOB 232336 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 636 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Anticipating winds to increase slightly to around 10 knots and shift to be northerly this evening. This will persist through Monday morning, with winds turning to be more northeasterly by mid-morning. Wind gusts to around 20 knots or so are expected near the coast tonight through Monday morning as well. Anticipating decreasing winds and clouds scattering out through the afternoon on Monday. /26 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023/ ..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Monday) Issued at 338 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023 The forecast remains on track this afternoon with a weak, secondary cold front currently draped across interior southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama. This front will continue to push southward towards the coast through the afternoon and evening hours. In the meantime, a weak shortwave, moving within a zonal flow aloft, will slide overhead this evening. This feature aloft combined with PWATs near 0.6-1.0 inches could support a few light rain showers over interior portions of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama this afternoon and evening. Although, am not expecting much in terms of accumulation given the weak forcing with a subsident layer near the surface. Dry conditions will otherwise persist through the period as high pressure builds in from the middle Mississippi Valley. Increasing north to northeasterly winds behind the front will also bring reinforcing cooler air into the region. Low temperatures tonight are expected to range from the upper 40s well inland to the lower and middle 50s over central and southern portions of the area. Highs on Monday will be a bit cooler with values topping out in the upper 60s in our northwestern zones and the middle 70s over far southeastern zones. /14 SHORT TERM... (Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 338 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023 Zonal flow aloft will prevail through midweek across the region. The next significant shortwave to approach from the west is forecast to be late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Guidance has trended less amplified with this wave as it gets sheared out in the fast westerly flow. At the surface, a stationary front just offshore will likely try to slowly move inland by early Wednesday in advance of the shortwave. This will increase surface moisture and result in some modest instability moving into land areas. Therefore, even though the shortwave is now forecast to be weaker, there will likely still a sufficient combination of atmospheric lift, moisture, and instability to result in scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms. Most of this will likely occur during the day Wednesday with rain chances diminishing Wednesday night in the wake of the shortwave. Severe chances look low at this point given the best deep layer bulk shear (near 40 kt) is forecast to diminish as the best instability moves in. Another more significant shortwave will be quickly on the heels of the first one, but it will likely remain far enough west of the area to have little impact Wednesday night. More details about this feature can be found in the long term section below. Temperatures will be fairly seasonable through this period. 34/JFB LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 338 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023 The aforementioned next shortwave to quickly approach in the westerly flow will move into the area during the day Thursday, pushing a cold front toward the region. A weak surface low developing along the front will help to entrench a deeper warm sector into the region during the day Thursday. Therefore, numerous showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly likely through the day and perhaps into Thursday evening. Guidance has continued to vary on the timing of this feature with the 12z ECMWF showing a slower solution and delaying more of the precip until Thursday night. The current forecast shows the highest rain chances during the day Thursday with a solid chance persisting into Thursday evening to reflect some of the timing uncertainty. Cannot rule out a couple of strong storms with this system given sufficient instability and deep layer bulk shear potentially strengthening to 40-50kt. However, sfc-850mb flow currently looks fairly weak and that would tend to mitigate the severe threat. This is something to monitor as we go through the week. Drier conditions are expected for Friday and Saturday. However, uncertainty increases once again as we go into Saturday night/Sunday. The 12z guidance suite has trended toward an even more amplified trough that could approach the area in this time frame. There has been little consistency with this given it is so far out. Decided to include a slight chance or rain Saturday night into Sunday, but this may certainly need to be increased in later forecasts if this trend holds. 34/JFB MARINE... Issued at 338 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2023 Light to moderate easterly flow continues through early this evening. A moderate to strong offshore flow will develop tonight as a cold front passes over the marine zones. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Mississippi Sound, Southern Mobile Bay, and offshore zones from late tonight through early Monday afternoon. It is possible that Northern Mobile Bay may also need to be added to the advisory. Winds decrease through Monday night with a light to moderate easterly wind is anticipated by Tuesday. An onshore flow returning by midweek. /14 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 54 72 53 80 61 79 64 80 / 10 10 0 10 40 60 10 60 Pensacola 58 75 60 78 65 77 66 78 / 10 10 0 10 30 60 20 50 Destin 60 76 61 78 66 78 67 78 / 10 10 0 10 30 60 30 50 Evergreen 50 72 49 80 56 80 59 81 / 20 10 0 10 30 60 10 60 Waynesboro 48 69 49 77 55 78 59 78 / 20 10 0 10 30 60 10 60 Camden 49 70 47 78 55 78 58 78 / 20 0 0 10 30 60 10 60 Crestview 53 77 53 83 59 82 62 83 / 10 10 0 10 30 60 20 60 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ631-632- 650-655-670-675. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob