023 
FXUS61 KPBZ 011832 AAA
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
232 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Confidence is increasing that strong wind gusts, over 50mph will
occur this afternoon with an advancing cold front. There is a
window of opportunity for strong storms ahead of the front 
boundary early this afternoon; the primary threat will be hail
and high wind gusts.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Updated to clear the severe thunderstorm watch behind the cold
front. 

Previous...
1:30PM Update: A line of showers and thunderstorms 
continues to cross into western PA along a cold front boundary. 
Ahead of the frontal boundary, drier conditions has prompted 
clearing and diurnal heating. The overall trend of GOES-16 
vertical temperature profiles suggested elevated instability 
building quickly; mid and low-lvl lapse rates will continue to 
increase with cooling aloft. With strong deep wind shear, hail 
and strong wind gusts will be the main concern through 4pm as 
the front crosses over the Laurel Highlands. Wind gusts as high 
as 65mph have been measured within convective and damage has 
been reported; The Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues until 
6pm.

Regardless if you see storms or not, there will be strong wind
gusts from a noted pressure gradient associated with this
advancing low pressure system. Over the last 24 hours, models
have been consistent with 50mph wind gusts as a pressure couplet
strengthens on the backside of the front. The NAM and HRRR
suggest a 7mb pressure increase in 3 hours after 20Z. Wind gusts
will remain elevated until at least 00Z for the lower terrain;
06Z for areas above 2kft. Rain showers and thunderstorms will
evolve into snow showers with incoming cold air before midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Northwest flow and cold advection could lead to additional 
precipitation early Sunday morning. However, confidence with a
wintry mix/snow will be confided mostly to the ridges. As drier
air advances in from the north. Precipitation chances will wrap
up by late morning; a light coating of snow may occur in the 
higher elevations.

Ridging will promote dry and seasonable weather Sunday 
afternoon. A weak shortwave within stronger flow to the north 
Monday may promote areas of showers during the afternoon to 
evening, notably near a developing warm front south of Lake 
Erie. However, ensemble variance persists in strength of the 
shortwave and positioning of the sfc warm front, which may alter
the timing and location of precipitation. The NBM suggests low 
probabilities for rainfall totals; a quarter of an inch or less
will likely occur with this shortwave feature.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Long range ensembles suggest a new low pressure system will
develop out of the Rockies early Tuesday and reinforce a ridge 
axis in the East Coast. Warm, moist conditions are likely to 
develop Wednesday and strong thunderstorms could occur as the 
center of a low advances north of the Midwest and a cold front 
tracks across the Ohio River Valley. Dry, cool conditions are 
likely Thursday/Friday with a change in the synoptic pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Strong winds and showers/thunderstorms will accompany a cold 
front as it crosses the region this afternoon. Gusts up to 50kts
will be possible. MVFR cigs and isolated showers will linger 
until Sunday morning in the wake of the front.

.OUTLOOK...
VFR to start the week, followed by restrictions with a mid-week
frontal system.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020-022.
     High Wind Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ021-029-
     031-073-075-077.
     High Wind Warning until 2 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ074-076-078.
OH...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ039>041-048.
     High Wind Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ049-050-
     057>059-068-069.
WV...High Wind Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ001>004-
     012-021-509.
     High Wind Warning until 2 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ510>514.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...WM/Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...88