023 FXUS61 KPBZ 011832 AAA AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 232 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Confidence is increasing that strong wind gusts, over 50mph will occur this afternoon with an advancing cold front. There is a window of opportunity for strong storms ahead of the front boundary early this afternoon; the primary threat will be hail and high wind gusts. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Updated to clear the severe thunderstorm watch behind the cold front. Previous... 1:30PM Update: A line of showers and thunderstorms continues to cross into western PA along a cold front boundary. Ahead of the frontal boundary, drier conditions has prompted clearing and diurnal heating. The overall trend of GOES-16 vertical temperature profiles suggested elevated instability building quickly; mid and low-lvl lapse rates will continue to increase with cooling aloft. With strong deep wind shear, hail and strong wind gusts will be the main concern through 4pm as the front crosses over the Laurel Highlands. Wind gusts as high as 65mph have been measured within convective and damage has been reported; The Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues until 6pm. Regardless if you see storms or not, there will be strong wind gusts from a noted pressure gradient associated with this advancing low pressure system. Over the last 24 hours, models have been consistent with 50mph wind gusts as a pressure couplet strengthens on the backside of the front. The NAM and HRRR suggest a 7mb pressure increase in 3 hours after 20Z. Wind gusts will remain elevated until at least 00Z for the lower terrain; 06Z for areas above 2kft. Rain showers and thunderstorms will evolve into snow showers with incoming cold air before midnight. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Northwest flow and cold advection could lead to additional precipitation early Sunday morning. However, confidence with a wintry mix/snow will be confided mostly to the ridges. As drier air advances in from the north. Precipitation chances will wrap up by late morning; a light coating of snow may occur in the higher elevations. Ridging will promote dry and seasonable weather Sunday afternoon. A weak shortwave within stronger flow to the north Monday may promote areas of showers during the afternoon to evening, notably near a developing warm front south of Lake Erie. However, ensemble variance persists in strength of the shortwave and positioning of the sfc warm front, which may alter the timing and location of precipitation. The NBM suggests low probabilities for rainfall totals; a quarter of an inch or less will likely occur with this shortwave feature. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Long range ensembles suggest a new low pressure system will develop out of the Rockies early Tuesday and reinforce a ridge axis in the East Coast. Warm, moist conditions are likely to develop Wednesday and strong thunderstorms could occur as the center of a low advances north of the Midwest and a cold front tracks across the Ohio River Valley. Dry, cool conditions are likely Thursday/Friday with a change in the synoptic pattern. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Strong winds and showers/thunderstorms will accompany a cold front as it crosses the region this afternoon. Gusts up to 50kts will be possible. MVFR cigs and isolated showers will linger until Sunday morning in the wake of the front. .OUTLOOK... VFR to start the week, followed by restrictions with a mid-week frontal system. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ007>009- 013>016-020-022. High Wind Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ021-029- 031-073-075-077. High Wind Warning until 2 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ074-076-078. OH...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ039>041-048. High Wind Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ049-050- 057>059-068-069. WV...High Wind Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ001>004- 012-021-509. High Wind Warning until 2 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ510>514. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hefferan NEAR TERM...WM/Hefferan SHORT TERM...Hefferan LONG TERM...Hefferan AVIATION...88