242 
FXUS64 KSJT 010909
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
409 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

Surface high pressure will move into north Texas late this morning, 
then quickly move off to the east by this evening. Winds will be 
light today, due to the weaker pressure gradient. Winds will 
initially be out of the north this morning but will become 
southeasterly by late afternoon, as the surface high shifts east. 
Skies will be mostly sunny today, with pleasant temperatures. 
Afternoon highs will range from the low to mid 70s across the Big 
Country, to the upper 70s and lower 80s elsewhere.

Low level moisture will increase tonight, ahead of an approaching 
shortwave to our west. Low clouds will develop from south to north 
after midnight, leading to mostly cloudy skies. The increase in 
moisture and cloud cover will result in milder temperatures tonight, 
with overnight lows mainly in the low to mid 50s. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

... Chance of strong storms Sunday. Fire weather concerns Sunday 
through Tuesday. High winds on Tuesday...

Southerly flow will bring increased moisture and temperatures 
into the area Sunday. A north-south oriented dryline will develop
in our western counties early Sunday. A mid level shortwave will 
be moving across the area on Sunday as well. The lift associated 
with the shortwave, dry line, and warm air advection could produce
showers and thunderstorms starting in the late morning and into
the late afternoon. Models are differing slightly with the exact 
location of the dryline, which will impact whether precipitation 
will develop across our area or not. If precipitation does 
develop, strong to severe thunderstorms are possible east of the 
dry line, primarily in our northeastern counties. Instability and 
shear values will support hail, strong winds, and possibly a weak 
tornado. The main concern will be hail with these storms, but we 
can not rule out the formation of a tornado Sunday afternoon. 

The dry line will hang around our area for a few days, leaving a 
pretty significant gradient in relative humidity values until it 
moves further east on Tuesday. On Monday, there is a small chance we 
could see a few storms again, but CIN and dry low to mid levels 
should prevent anything from developing. However, if something does 
develop it could become strong due to the instability at mid levels 
and wind shear. Temperatures will warm up through Tuesday, as our 
southwest winds bring warm and dry air into the area. Highs on 
Monday could reach into the mid 90s and highs on Tuesday will range 
from the mid 80s to mid 90s.

Our next upper level trough will be over the West coast Monday. As 
it moves eastward, a surface low will develop near the four corners 
region and move toward our area. As it forms, the pressure gradient 
will tighten and we will see strong winds on Tuesday, with gusts up 
to 50 mph possible. The dry conditions and breezy winds will cause 
fire weather concerns for Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday (greatest 
concern on Tuesday). The aforementioned surface low will be to the 
north of our area on Tuesday and will drag a cold front through 
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Mid and lower levels should be 
too dry to see any precipitation along this front. Temperatures will 
drop Wednesday and the rest of the week will be cooler.

A wetter pattern looks to be in store starting Thursday, with a 
chance of rain everyday through the end of this forecast period, 
thanks to a series of upper level disturbances.
&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours, with light winds
through the period.  

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     75  55  84  55 /   0   0  30   0 
San Angelo  79  55  86  54 /   0   0  10   0 
Junction    84  56  86  57 /  10   0  10   0 
Brownwood   77  52  83  55 /   0   0  50  10 
Sweetwater  77  55  85  54 /   0   0  20   0 
Ozona       82  58  86  54 /   0   0  10   0 
Brady       79  54  83  58 /  10   0  30   0 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...24