242 FXUS64 KSJT 010909 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 409 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 Surface high pressure will move into north Texas late this morning, then quickly move off to the east by this evening. Winds will be light today, due to the weaker pressure gradient. Winds will initially be out of the north this morning but will become southeasterly by late afternoon, as the surface high shifts east. Skies will be mostly sunny today, with pleasant temperatures. Afternoon highs will range from the low to mid 70s across the Big Country, to the upper 70s and lower 80s elsewhere. Low level moisture will increase tonight, ahead of an approaching shortwave to our west. Low clouds will develop from south to north after midnight, leading to mostly cloudy skies. The increase in moisture and cloud cover will result in milder temperatures tonight, with overnight lows mainly in the low to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 ... Chance of strong storms Sunday. Fire weather concerns Sunday through Tuesday. High winds on Tuesday... Southerly flow will bring increased moisture and temperatures into the area Sunday. A north-south oriented dryline will develop in our western counties early Sunday. A mid level shortwave will be moving across the area on Sunday as well. The lift associated with the shortwave, dry line, and warm air advection could produce showers and thunderstorms starting in the late morning and into the late afternoon. Models are differing slightly with the exact location of the dryline, which will impact whether precipitation will develop across our area or not. If precipitation does develop, strong to severe thunderstorms are possible east of the dry line, primarily in our northeastern counties. Instability and shear values will support hail, strong winds, and possibly a weak tornado. The main concern will be hail with these storms, but we can not rule out the formation of a tornado Sunday afternoon. The dry line will hang around our area for a few days, leaving a pretty significant gradient in relative humidity values until it moves further east on Tuesday. On Monday, there is a small chance we could see a few storms again, but CIN and dry low to mid levels should prevent anything from developing. However, if something does develop it could become strong due to the instability at mid levels and wind shear. Temperatures will warm up through Tuesday, as our southwest winds bring warm and dry air into the area. Highs on Monday could reach into the mid 90s and highs on Tuesday will range from the mid 80s to mid 90s. Our next upper level trough will be over the West coast Monday. As it moves eastward, a surface low will develop near the four corners region and move toward our area. As it forms, the pressure gradient will tighten and we will see strong winds on Tuesday, with gusts up to 50 mph possible. The dry conditions and breezy winds will cause fire weather concerns for Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday (greatest concern on Tuesday). The aforementioned surface low will be to the north of our area on Tuesday and will drag a cold front through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Mid and lower levels should be too dry to see any precipitation along this front. Temperatures will drop Wednesday and the rest of the week will be cooler. A wetter pattern looks to be in store starting Thursday, with a chance of rain everyday through the end of this forecast period, thanks to a series of upper level disturbances. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023 VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours, with light winds through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 75 55 84 55 / 0 0 30 0 San Angelo 79 55 86 54 / 0 0 10 0 Junction 84 56 86 57 / 10 0 10 0 Brownwood 77 52 83 55 / 0 0 50 10 Sweetwater 77 55 85 54 / 0 0 20 0 Ozona 82 58 86 54 / 0 0 10 0 Brady 79 54 83 58 / 10 0 30 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....AP AVIATION...24