003 
FXUS64 KLUB 271723
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1223 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

An upper level short wave trough will move from eastern 
Wyoming/central Colorado at sunrise today to western Kansas/Nebraska 
at sunset and the Missouri Valley by sunrise Tuesday. Modest upslope 
northeast to east surface flow behind yesterday's cold front will 
veer to east and southeast across the eastern part of the forecast 
while to the west a lee surface trough will push eastward into the 
forecast area in tandem with the upper trough. Modest increases in 
temperatures today will mainly be down to slight increase in 
thicknesses while low level temperature advection is nearly neutral. 
Once the upper trough moves onto the High Plains early this evening, 
another cold front will race southward, likely clearing the forecast 
area by midnight with north winds becoming gusty and brisk. Strong 
cold advection overnight should result in the coldest temperatures 
across the forecast area for about a week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

Tuesday will start off with blustery conditions in the morning from 
breezy northerly winds and cold air in the wake of the cold front 
with afternoon highs only in the 50s. Surface high pressure will 
slide to the southeast during the day allowing winds to turn to the 
south Tuesday evening and overnight. Temperatures will rebound 
Wednesday due to breezy southerly winds and abundant sunshine with 
high temperatures forecast in the 70s. Southwest flow aloft will 
increase Thursday morning as an upper level trough approaches the 
forecast area. Warm, moist, low-level southerly flow will increase 
Thursday morning as a surface low develops in Colorado raising 
dewpoints to the 50s for most locations. The main forcing associated 
with the trough will remain to the northwest, but several embedded 
impulses in the southwest flow will provide enough lift for a chance 
of thunderstorms Thursday evening and night. The best chances for 
thunderstorm development will be in the southeast Rolling Plains and 
southeast Texas Panhandle where storms may form along a dryline or 
Pacific front. The Pacific cold front will sweep through West Texas 
Thursday night leading to much drier air and strong westerly winds 
on Friday. As the upper level trough departs the region, winds in 
the 700-500 mb layer will increase substantially. Warm and clear 
skies will promote strong vertical mixing which will allow downward 
mixing of these stronger winds. By Saturday, upper level wind speeds 
will decrease and shortwave ridging will begin to move in leading to 
much calmer winds and mild conditions. Long term models begin to 
diverge on Sunday with the GFS bringing a compact shortwave trough 
through the Texas Panhandle but overall warm weather appears likely 
and chances of rain are low with both GFS and ECMWF solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

Light southeasterly winds will turn to the west early this
afternoon at KLBB and KPVW as a dryline moves through the area. A
strong cold front will then quickly plow through the area this
evening shifting winds to the north and increasing to around
18-20kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

A dry air mass will remain in place across the forecast area today, 
although for much of the area winds will remain light. The exception 
will be across the northwestern corner where a surface trough will 
move eastward from eastern New Mexico bringing breezy west winds and 
even drier air around the middle of the afternoon. Forecast RFTIs 
are 3 to 4 for a several hour period mid to late afternoon with 
periodic 5 to 6 suggest the need for a Red Flag Warning for the four 
counties in the northwest corner of the forecast area.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible on 
Thursday as westerly winds increase and minimum relative humidity 
values drop into the teens. Elevated to critical fire weather 
conditions are likely on Friday as westerly winds increase 
significantly and minimum relative humidity values drop to near 10%. 
There is a low chance of rain Thursday and Thursday night for 
locations off the Caprock but most areas are expected to remain 
dry with ERC values in the 70-80th percentile on Friday. The fire 
threat will persist through the weekend as winds remain breezy and
dry conditions prevail.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021-022-027-
028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...01