003 FXUS64 KLUB 271723 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1223 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023 An upper level short wave trough will move from eastern Wyoming/central Colorado at sunrise today to western Kansas/Nebraska at sunset and the Missouri Valley by sunrise Tuesday. Modest upslope northeast to east surface flow behind yesterday's cold front will veer to east and southeast across the eastern part of the forecast while to the west a lee surface trough will push eastward into the forecast area in tandem with the upper trough. Modest increases in temperatures today will mainly be down to slight increase in thicknesses while low level temperature advection is nearly neutral. Once the upper trough moves onto the High Plains early this evening, another cold front will race southward, likely clearing the forecast area by midnight with north winds becoming gusty and brisk. Strong cold advection overnight should result in the coldest temperatures across the forecast area for about a week. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023 Tuesday will start off with blustery conditions in the morning from breezy northerly winds and cold air in the wake of the cold front with afternoon highs only in the 50s. Surface high pressure will slide to the southeast during the day allowing winds to turn to the south Tuesday evening and overnight. Temperatures will rebound Wednesday due to breezy southerly winds and abundant sunshine with high temperatures forecast in the 70s. Southwest flow aloft will increase Thursday morning as an upper level trough approaches the forecast area. Warm, moist, low-level southerly flow will increase Thursday morning as a surface low develops in Colorado raising dewpoints to the 50s for most locations. The main forcing associated with the trough will remain to the northwest, but several embedded impulses in the southwest flow will provide enough lift for a chance of thunderstorms Thursday evening and night. The best chances for thunderstorm development will be in the southeast Rolling Plains and southeast Texas Panhandle where storms may form along a dryline or Pacific front. The Pacific cold front will sweep through West Texas Thursday night leading to much drier air and strong westerly winds on Friday. As the upper level trough departs the region, winds in the 700-500 mb layer will increase substantially. Warm and clear skies will promote strong vertical mixing which will allow downward mixing of these stronger winds. By Saturday, upper level wind speeds will decrease and shortwave ridging will begin to move in leading to much calmer winds and mild conditions. Long term models begin to diverge on Sunday with the GFS bringing a compact shortwave trough through the Texas Panhandle but overall warm weather appears likely and chances of rain are low with both GFS and ECMWF solutions. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023 Light southeasterly winds will turn to the west early this afternoon at KLBB and KPVW as a dryline moves through the area. A strong cold front will then quickly plow through the area this evening shifting winds to the north and increasing to around 18-20kt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023 A dry air mass will remain in place across the forecast area today, although for much of the area winds will remain light. The exception will be across the northwestern corner where a surface trough will move eastward from eastern New Mexico bringing breezy west winds and even drier air around the middle of the afternoon. Forecast RFTIs are 3 to 4 for a several hour period mid to late afternoon with periodic 5 to 6 suggest the need for a Red Flag Warning for the four counties in the northwest corner of the forecast area. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible on Thursday as westerly winds increase and minimum relative humidity values drop into the teens. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely on Friday as westerly winds increase significantly and minimum relative humidity values drop to near 10%. There is a low chance of rain Thursday and Thursday night for locations off the Caprock but most areas are expected to remain dry with ERC values in the 70-80th percentile on Friday. The fire threat will persist through the weekend as winds remain breezy and dry conditions prevail. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021-022-027- 028. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...01