110 
FXUS64 KMAF 241728
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1128 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 342 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2023

A backdoor cold front has pushed its way through the Permian Basin 
and is parking itself across the Pecos River Valley. Low clouds 
associated with the front are lagging behind, but will soon 
overspread much of the Basin and cutoff near the TX/NM line and 
along the Trans Pecos. Areas under the cloud cover will stay much 
cooler with Midland/Odessa likely struggling to reach the upper 40s, 
if that, this afternoon. Much less cloudy on the other side of the 
front to the south and west, where temperatures will reach into the 
60s and 70s. 

Despite the increased moisture between about 900mb to 800mb, 
precipitation chances do not increase significantly until early 
Saturday morning. Even then, amounts will stay on the lighter side 
as slightly drier air stays close to the surface. The Permian Basin 
remains under the colder airmass and lows for Saturday morning dip 
into the mid to upper 30s. Areas south and west of the Trans Pecos 
settle in the mid to upper 40s with the Presidio Valley and Big Bend 
staying warm in the 50s. 

Scattered showers develop during the day as the aforementioned front 
slowly lifts northward. Plenty of cloud cover and stubborn cold air 
will keep the Permian Basin in the 50s with most other places to the 
south and west warming into the 60s and 70s.  

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 342 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2023

Saturday night, a cut-off low will make landfall in SoCal, leaving 
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under progressive southwest flow 
aloft.  At the surface, return flow will be advecting Gulf moisture 
into the area, with models pushing a warm front through the eastern 
zones.  This will combine with a shortwave from the SoCal trough for 
a slight chance of showers, mainly north of I-10.  Fog will also 
develop behind the warm front, mainly over the northeast zones.

Sunday, the SoCal trough will pass through West Texas and Southeast 
New Mexico, resulting in another windbag for the region. The NAM 
develops a pronounced mountain wave signature over the Guadalupes 
Sunday morning, and keeps it going through the end of its run Monday 
morning.  700mb height gradients on both the NAM and GFS tighten up 
to better than 60m/100nm Sunday afternoon, signaling a significant 
high wind event.  We don't normally issue wind watches that far out, 
but considering this is a weekend event, events the past couple of 
weeks, and the fact that the March synoptic pattern seems to have 
arrived early, confidence is high.  After coordination w/surrounding 
offices, we've opted to issue a fairly broad watch for Sunday 
afternoon/evening, mainly as a heads-up for the weekend.  Advisories 
will be needed for the remainder of the CWA.  Temperatures Sunday 
afternoon will top out well-above normal, and it goes almost without 
saying that fire weather concerns will be in the mix as well.  See 
fire wx discussion below for more details.

Unfortunately, a Pac front will blow the area Sunday evening, taking 
temperatures down to near normal Monday afternoon.  Temperatures 
quickly rebound Tuesday and Wednesday.  Thursday, models bring 
another trough through the region, although long-range models are in 
disagreement on timing.  Cluster prototypes suggest slower solutions 
are preferred, but the NBM nevertheless brings highs closer to 
normal Thursday afternoon, with a few showers possible.  Friday, 
highs come in below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2023

VFR conditions are currently being observed everywhere but MAF
though VFR CIGs near ODO. This TAF forecast keeps MAF MVFR this
afternoon but with clearing skies so close MAF may be able to
reach VFR for a few hours 20-02Z. Will amend if this occurs with
MVFR CIGs quickly returning and IFR conditions by 12Z. Other TAF
sites will see the MVFR CIGs push west tonight and remain through
the end of the TAF period. Light east to northeasterly winds will
continue.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               44  38  53  49 /   0  10  40  20 
Carlsbad                 66  41  66  49 /   0   0  10  10 
Dryden                   64  50  68  54 /   0  10  20  10 
Fort Stockton            66  47  73  56 /   0   0  20  10 
Guadalupe Pass           63  45  67  50 /   0   0  10  10 
Hobbs                    52  38  57  48 /   0   0  30  20 
Marfa                    73  43  75  47 /   0   0   0  10 
Midland Intl Airport     47  40  54  52 /   0   0  30  20 
Odessa                   50  41  55  54 /   0   0  30  20 
Wink                     63  43  67  51 /   0   0  30  20 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for 
     Davis Mountains-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for 
     Andrews-Borden-Crane-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-
     Eastern Culberson County-Ector-Gaines-Howard-Loving-Martin-
     Midland-Pecos-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Van Horn and 
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for 
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for 
     Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-
     Southern Lea County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...10