110 FXUS64 KMAF 241728 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1128 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 342 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2023 A backdoor cold front has pushed its way through the Permian Basin and is parking itself across the Pecos River Valley. Low clouds associated with the front are lagging behind, but will soon overspread much of the Basin and cutoff near the TX/NM line and along the Trans Pecos. Areas under the cloud cover will stay much cooler with Midland/Odessa likely struggling to reach the upper 40s, if that, this afternoon. Much less cloudy on the other side of the front to the south and west, where temperatures will reach into the 60s and 70s. Despite the increased moisture between about 900mb to 800mb, precipitation chances do not increase significantly until early Saturday morning. Even then, amounts will stay on the lighter side as slightly drier air stays close to the surface. The Permian Basin remains under the colder airmass and lows for Saturday morning dip into the mid to upper 30s. Areas south and west of the Trans Pecos settle in the mid to upper 40s with the Presidio Valley and Big Bend staying warm in the 50s. Scattered showers develop during the day as the aforementioned front slowly lifts northward. Plenty of cloud cover and stubborn cold air will keep the Permian Basin in the 50s with most other places to the south and west warming into the 60s and 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 342 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2023 Saturday night, a cut-off low will make landfall in SoCal, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under progressive southwest flow aloft. At the surface, return flow will be advecting Gulf moisture into the area, with models pushing a warm front through the eastern zones. This will combine with a shortwave from the SoCal trough for a slight chance of showers, mainly north of I-10. Fog will also develop behind the warm front, mainly over the northeast zones. Sunday, the SoCal trough will pass through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, resulting in another windbag for the region. The NAM develops a pronounced mountain wave signature over the Guadalupes Sunday morning, and keeps it going through the end of its run Monday morning. 700mb height gradients on both the NAM and GFS tighten up to better than 60m/100nm Sunday afternoon, signaling a significant high wind event. We don't normally issue wind watches that far out, but considering this is a weekend event, events the past couple of weeks, and the fact that the March synoptic pattern seems to have arrived early, confidence is high. After coordination w/surrounding offices, we've opted to issue a fairly broad watch for Sunday afternoon/evening, mainly as a heads-up for the weekend. Advisories will be needed for the remainder of the CWA. Temperatures Sunday afternoon will top out well-above normal, and it goes almost without saying that fire weather concerns will be in the mix as well. See fire wx discussion below for more details. Unfortunately, a Pac front will blow the area Sunday evening, taking temperatures down to near normal Monday afternoon. Temperatures quickly rebound Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday, models bring another trough through the region, although long-range models are in disagreement on timing. Cluster prototypes suggest slower solutions are preferred, but the NBM nevertheless brings highs closer to normal Thursday afternoon, with a few showers possible. Friday, highs come in below normal. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2023 VFR conditions are currently being observed everywhere but MAF though VFR CIGs near ODO. This TAF forecast keeps MAF MVFR this afternoon but with clearing skies so close MAF may be able to reach VFR for a few hours 20-02Z. Will amend if this occurs with MVFR CIGs quickly returning and IFR conditions by 12Z. Other TAF sites will see the MVFR CIGs push west tonight and remain through the end of the TAF period. Light east to northeasterly winds will continue. Hennig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 44 38 53 49 / 0 10 40 20 Carlsbad 66 41 66 49 / 0 0 10 10 Dryden 64 50 68 54 / 0 10 20 10 Fort Stockton 66 47 73 56 / 0 0 20 10 Guadalupe Pass 63 45 67 50 / 0 0 10 10 Hobbs 52 38 57 48 / 0 0 30 20 Marfa 73 43 75 47 / 0 0 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 47 40 54 52 / 0 0 30 20 Odessa 50 41 55 54 / 0 0 30 20 Wink 63 43 67 51 / 0 0 30 20 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for Davis Mountains-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet- Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for Andrews-Borden-Crane-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson- Eastern Culberson County-Ector-Gaines-Howard-Loving-Martin- Midland-Pecos-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler. NM...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County- Southern Lea County. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...10