706 
FXUS61 KCLE 220244
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
944 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023

...Late Evening Near Term Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move northeast across the Midwest on Wednesday, 
lifting a warm front north across the region. This warm front will 
become nearly stationary just north of the area Wednesday into 
Thursday. A secondary low pressure system will then move east along 
the stationary boundary, pushing a strong cold front east across the 
area Thursday afternoon and evening. High pressure will build across 
the region by the end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
930 pm update...
After looking the latest 00z high-res guidance, confidence has
increased for the potential of a light wintry and or light
freezing rain with the onset of the precipitation that will be
spreading over the area by Wednesday morning. The better
potential for seeing impacts with this light wintry weather will
be over northeast Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania after 6 am.
Light to moderate precipitation is expected to develop and 
spread over the region into the morning hours. At the same time,
temperatures will likely still be at or slightly below freezing
with the onset of this precip before temps are able to warm up 
safely above freezing later in the morning. A light coating of 
light snow, light sleet, and a glaze of light freezing rain 
will be possible in the highlighted Winter Weather Advisory 
areas which may impact the morning commute and travel. If the 
potential increases outside this area, expansion of the advisory
maybe needed at a later forecast update. 

630 pm update...
We made some minor adjustments to the hour POPs forecast between
06z and 12z overnight. The previous forecast seemed just a 
touch too fast with the onset of precip spreading over the area 
from southwest to northeast. Otherwise, there were no other 
changes made to the near term forecast at this time. We will 
keep an eye on the trends with the latest model guidance that 
comes in this evening for tomorrow morning's light wintry mix 
potential.

Previous discussion...
An active near term period is anticipated across the Lower 
Great Lakes region with rain, ice, sleet, and snow. For our 
area, a mainly-rain scenario appears most likely, though model 
trends will need to continue to be monitored over the next 12 
hours.

For the rest of today, mixing heights have definitely exceeded 
expectations, with winds tapping up to as high as 7 to 8,000 feet, 
compared with the forecast mixing heights of 4 to 4,500 feet. This 
has contributed to several wind gusts up to 45 mph and even some 
isolated reports up to 50 mph earlier this afternoon. Thankfully, 
the winds are expected to quickly diminish over the next few hours 
as the enhanced mid-level wind field exits east of the region. 

For tonight into Wednesday, a low pressure system will move 
northeast across the Midwest and into MI, lifting a warm front north 
across the area. Ahead and along the warm front, moist, isentropic 
lift will allow for scattered to widespread rain Wednesday morning 
and afternoon. Forecast soundings are suggesting a shallow, 
near-surface cool layer underneath a deeper warm layer aloft, 
and thus think sleet potential across our area should be kept to
a minimum. However, a brief window of freezing rain is possible
across NE OH into NW PA early Wednesday morning where the 
"coolest" antecedent surface temperatures in the upper 20s to 
lower 30s will be found ahead of the precipitation. Elsewhere, 
temperatures are expected to be in the mid-30s, quickly 
increasing into the 40s by mid- morning. For the Toledo area, 
brisk, easterly winds off of Lake Erie should moderate 
temperatures just above freezing, minimizing any freezing rain 
threat. However, we're still talking a 1 degree or two 
difference from possible impacts so this area will definitely 
need to be monitored through the next couple of shifts. 

On Wednesday night, the first low pressure system will reach NW OH, 
accompanied by a strong 850 mb jet of 60 to 70 knots, bringing with 
it a surge of low-level moisture and perhaps some elevated 
instability to allow for isolated rumbles of thunder. These rumbles 
of thunder will be accompanied by another round of rain and, 
depending on the mixing heights, the possibility of southwesterly 
winds gusting up to 40 mph given 925 mb winds in the 40 to 50 knot 
range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
By Thursday morning, the first low pressure will depart to the east, 
with a east-west oriented warm front draped somewhere across the 
forecast area (it's uncertain where exactly at this time). This warm 
front extends from a low located over northern Illinois at 12Z/Thu. 
Currently expecting this low to move northeast to lower Michigan by 
Thursday afternoon and then east across southern Ontario and to 
western/central New York by 00Z/Fri. As this low makes it track, its 
associated warm front will lift north across the area with some rain 
showers possibly lingering across the eastern part of the area 
Thursday morning. It's likely there will be a very strong thermal 
gradient across this front, with many areas experiencing a 20-30 
degree temperature rise from Thursday morning to Thursday afternoon. 
High temperatures are expected to exceed 60 areawide with a chance 
for some spots to hit 70! Once again, many climate sites will be 
close to reaching or exceeding daily record high temperatures. For 
this reason, we have included a climate section below for Feb 23.

Additionally, strong, deep mixing of the boundary layer is expected 
within the warm sector, which is partially why temperatures are 
expected to rise so much. Deep mixing of up to 6000 feet may be 
possible, tapping into the 40+ knot winds that will exist aloft. For 
this reason, southwest to west gusts of 40-50 mph may be possible 
Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening. It's possible a wind 
advisory may be needed.

A cold front moves east across the area Thursday evening through 
Thursday night. Winds aloft will be lower behind the front, so 
expect surface winds to gradually decrease Thursday night as they 
become west and then northwest by early Friday morning. Light lake 
effect snow is possible on Friday, mainly for northwest 
Pennsylvania. At this time, it looks like less than an inch of snow 
accumulation is expected. A cooler airmass settles in behind this 
front with temperatures expected to be well below normal with highs 
in the upper to mid 20s Friday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure briefly builds across the area Friday night before a 
weak, moisture-starved upper-level trough moves across the area on 
Saturday. It's possible we could see an isolated shower but we have 
PoPs capped at around 10-20% for Saturday. High pressure quickly 
builds across the area Saturday night into Sunday. Our next low 
pressure system comes out of the Great Plains region, moving 
northeast across the Great Lakes region Monday and Monday night, 
with precipitation type mostly rain. Currently have PoPs of around 
70% but could see this going higher as we get closer to it.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR conditions this evening will last through 06z but ceilings
will lower by 12z Wednesday morning to MVFR. Conditions will
further lower to IFR later Wednesday morning through the
afternoon. A warm front will be advancing northward early
Wednesday. Light to moderate precip will develop ahead of this
warm front. A light wintry mix will be possible on the onset of
the precip Wednesday morning with a brief period of light 
freezing rain/snow eventually changing over to light rain for
the rest of the TAF period. Ceilings will eventually lower to
700 to 900 feet late Wednesday morning through the end of the
TAF period. Visibility will be between 1sm and 3sm during the 
precip on Wednesday. Winds will start out west-northwest 10 
knots or less this evening. The winds will shift from a east- 
northeast direction late tonight around 10 to 12 knots and hold
through the rest of the TAF period. The warm front will 
advance through CAK and MFD after 21z with a wind shift from 
the southeast around 10 knots. Non-convective LLWS may need to 
be considered in the next TAF issuance, primarily for Wednesday 
afternoon and evening. 

Outlook...Non-VFR possible Wednesday evening into Thursday in 
rain showers and isolated thunder. Gusty, westerly winds of 40 
to 45 mph are possible Thursday afternoon and evening following 
a strong cold front. Non- VFR possible again in snow showers 
and/or low ceilings Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will gradually weaken this evening as high pressure builds 
in, so have allowed the small craft advisory to expire for the 
western end this evening. The small craft advisory continues for the 
eastern basin through this evening.

A complicated marine forecast is in store this week as a pair of low 
pressure system move east in vicinity of Lake Erie first Wednesday 
evening, and again Thursday evening, resulting in several periods of 
marine headlines this week. First, small craft advisory likely 
needed for 20-30 easterly winds Wednesday morning with wind 
direction becoming very uncertain Wednesday night, though the small 
craft advisory may still be needed. There will be a bit of lull 
Thursday morning before strengthen with southwesterly flow to 20-25 
knots again behind a front Thursday afternoon/evening. A cold front 
quickly moves east across the lake Thursday evening with winds of 20-
30 knots possible with westerly flow Thursday night. A small craft 
advisory is likely needed Thursday afternoon through at least late 
Friday morning. Quieter conditions expected Friday night through 
Saturday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record-high temperatures are possible on Thursday, Feb 23. Here
are the records for climate sites for Feb 23:

Date    Toledo         Mansfield      Cleveland      Akron          Youngstown     Erie           

02-23   68(2017)       68(2017)       68(2017)       69(2017)       69(2017)       65(1922)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 10 AM EST Wednesday for 
     OHZ010-011-020-021.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM EST Wednesday for 
     OHZ012>014-022-023-033-089.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM EST Wednesday for 
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for 
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Griffin/Kahn
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...Saunders
CLIMATE...